Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 23

Date: 6 March 2023, Monday

Location: Estadio Pina Manique (Lisbon)

Referee: Pinheiro J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	Arena Sport


	Casa Pia		Paços de Ferreira

	1	X	2
	2	3.1	4.33	Watch
	2	3.2	3.75
	1.94	3.05	4.3
	2	3.15	3.95
	2	3.17	4.55
	2	3.1	4
	1.91	3.35	4.33	Watch
	2	3.25	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.98 ↓ (2.02)	3.17 ↓ (3.22)	4.16 ↑ (3.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Casa Pia
47.6%

Draw
29.7%

Paços de Ferreira
22.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

29.2%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.3%

29.3%

24.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Casa Pia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

Paços de Ferreira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paços de Ferreira than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	9.1%	24.2%

Casa Pia - Paços de Ferreira Predictions

Users Predictions: 33 users predict this event. Casa Pia will win (votes: 22 - 66.7%). Paços de Ferreira will win (votes: 8 - 24.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Casa Pia: 50.6% – 82.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 7 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).

Casa Pia has the most likely position - 7 (14.96%), has project points - 45, has currently - 32, has a very small chance of relegated (<1%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Paços de Ferreira has the most likely position - 18 (52.17%), has project points - 23, has currently - 12, has a good chance of relegated (87%), has not chance of qualify for ucl.

This event has quality 42, small importance 14, small match rating 28. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Casa Pia is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Paços de Ferreira is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Casa Pia is a favorite.

There will not play in Casa Pia: Leo Natel (Broken Leg) Mukendi B. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Casa Pia: Tchamba D. (Injury)

Last 3 head-to-head matches Casa Pia won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Casa Pia
Liga Portugal
25.02.23	Arouca - Casa Pia	2:0 ✺
19.02.23	Casa Pia - Vitoria Guimarães	0:0 ✺
13.02.23	Boavista - Casa Pia	0:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
09.02.23	Casa Pia - Nacional	2:5 ET ✺
Liga Portugal
04.02.23	Benfica - Casa Pia	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LTTLL
- Paços de Ferreira
Liga Portugal
26.02.23	Paços de Ferreira - Boavista	1:3 ✺
18.02.23	Estoril Praia - Paços de Ferreira	1:3 ✺
06.02.23	Portimonense - Paços de Ferreira	1:0 ✺
31.01.23	Paços de Ferreira - Gil Vicente	2:1 ✺
26.01.23	Paços de Ferreira - Benfica	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese League Cup
20.11.22	Paços de Ferreira - Casa Pia	1:1
Liga Portugal
11.09.22	Paços de Ferreira - Casa Pia	2:3
Taça de Portugal
25.11.18	Paços de Ferreira - Casa Pia	3:1

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