Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 18

Date: 31 January 2023, Tuesday

Location: Estádio da Capital do Móvel (Paços de Ferreira)

Referee: Costa B. J. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Portugal	Sport TV
Serbia	Arena Sport


	Paços de Ferreira		Gil Vicente

	1	X	2
	3	3.25	2.38	Watch
	3.1	3.2	2.3
	3.2	3.05	2.28
	3	3.2	2.37
	3.34	3.17	2.42
	3.1	3.1	2.35
	3.13	3.26	2.3	Watch
	3.05	3.25	2.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.12 ↑ (2.73)	3.19 ↑ (3.1)	2.35 ↓ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paços de Ferreira
30.3%

Draw
29.6%

Gil Vicente
40.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

30%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.2%

29.2%

36.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paços de Ferreira has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

Gil Vicente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paços de Ferreira than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gil Vicente than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.3%	37.9%	51.7%

Paços de Ferreira - Gil Vicente Predictions

Users Predictions: 29 users predict this event. Paços de Ferreira will win (votes: 3 - 10.3%). Gil Vicente will win (votes: 15 - 51.7%). It will Tie (votes: 11 - 37.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gil Vicente: 33.5% – 69.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 15).

Paços de Ferreira has the most likely position - 18 (74.66%), has project points - 21, has currently - 6, has a good chance of relegated (94%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

Gil Vicente has the most likely position - 14 (10.28%), has project points - 40, has currently - 18, has a small chance of relegated (8%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).

This event has quality 43, small importance 19, match rating 31. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Paços de Ferreira won 1.

Paços de Ferreira is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Gil Vicente is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Paços de Ferreira could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Paços de Ferreira: Ibrahim A. (Injury)

There will not play in Gil Vicente: Barros L. (Injury) Ruben (Injury)

There are questionable in Gil Vicente: da Silva Ventura A. (Injury)

Last 17 head-to-head matches Paços de Ferreira won 5 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 16-20.

Including matches at home between the teams Paços de Ferreira won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paços de Ferreira
Liga Portugal
26.01.23	Paços de Ferreira - Benfica	0:2 ✺
21.01.23	Paços de Ferreira - Braga	1:2 ✺
14.01.23	Rio Ave - Paços de Ferreira	0:1 ✺
08.01.23	Paços de Ferreira - Chaves	1:1 ✺
29.12.22	Sporting Lisbon - Paços de Ferreira	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LLWTL
- Gil Vicente
Liga Portugal
22.01.23	Casa Pia - Gil Vicente	1:3 ✺
16.01.23	Gil Vicente - Vitoria Guimarães	2:1 ✺
08.01.23	Boavista - Gil Vicente	1:0 ✺
29.12.22	Gil Vicente - Santa Clara	1:0 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
21.12.22	Porto - Gil Vicente	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
08.08.22	Gil Vicente - Paços de Ferreira	1:0
23.04.22	Gil Vicente - Paços de Ferreira	1:1
10.12.21	Paços de Ferreira - Gil Vicente	0:1
Portuguese League Cup
30.07.21	Paços de Ferreira - Gil Vicente	2:1 penalties
Liga Portugal
14.05.21	Paços de Ferreira - Gil Vicente	0:2
02.02.21	Gil Vicente - Paços de Ferreira	1:2
24.07.20	Gil Vicente - Paços de Ferreira	3:3

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