Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 11

Date: 9 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio da Luz (Lisbon)

Referee: Correia G. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 3
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, Sky+, Vivo Play, Xsports
Bulgaria	Ring, Voyo
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 7, Cytavision Sports 7
Denmark	Bold+
Finland	Veikkaus TV
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 6, Free
Georgia	Silk Universal
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Italy	DAZN Italia
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Lithuania	Sport 1
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	VG+
Poland	Eleven Sports 4
Portugal	Benfica TV
Russia	TV Start
Serbia	Arena Sport 1
Slovakia	Arena sport 1
Slovenia	Sportklub
South-america	Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Latinoamerica, Gol TV Play Latinoamerica
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 4
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Inter
World	Triller TV+


	Benfica		Casa Pia

	1	X	2
	1.13	7.5	15	Watch
	1.15	7.4	14.5	Watch
	1.18	8.4	14
	1.18	7.22	13.35	Watch
	1.2	7.65	15	Watch
	1.18	7	14
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.17 ↓ (1.18)	7.53 ↑ (7.31)	14.31 ↑ (12.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Benfica
80.8%

Draw
12.6%

Casa Pia
6.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

79.9%

12.8%

7.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Benfica has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.9%	3.6%	3.6%

Benfica - Casa Pia Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Benfica will win (votes: 26 - 92.9%). Casa Pia will win (votes: 1 - 3.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 3.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Benfica: 83.4% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 7.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Benfica (1.56) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 2nd Half - Benfica (1.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Benfica will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Benfica (votes: 11 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Trubin A. (G) 17. Dedic A. 4. Silva A. (C) 44. Araujo T. 26. Dahl S. 20. Rios R. 5. Barrenechea E. 11. Lukebakio D. 10. Sudakov G. 8. Aursnes F. 14. Pavlidis V.	1. Sequeira P. (G) 27. Kaique Rocha 6. Fonte J. (C) 43. Sousa D. 72. Larrazabal G. 8. Brito R. 42. Perez S. 18. Geraldes A. 29. Livolant J. 90. Cassiano 7. Nsona K.
Substitutes
39. Araujo H. 18. Barreiro L. 9. Ivanovic F. 3. Obrador R. 25. Prestianni G. 84. Rego J. 21. Schjelderup A. 24. Soares S. (G) 66. Wynder J.	22. Azevedo D. (G) 4. Goulart J. 14. Miguel Sousa 24. Mohamed I. 21. Morais T. 74. Nhaga R. 19. Prieto K. 10. Rocha Livramento D. 17. Severina X.
Coaches
Mourinho J.	Santana A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', Sousa D. 🟨,
17', 1 - 0, Sudakov G. ⚽, Pavlidis V. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Barrenechea E. ↓, Prestianni G. ↑,
53', Sudakov G. 🟨,
60', 2 - 0, Pavlidis V. (Pen),
63', Silva A. 🟨,
63', Mourinho J. 🟨,
65', Cassiano (Pen),
65', 2 - 1, Araujo T. (Own goal),
66', Cassiano ↓, Rocha Livramento D. ↑,
66', Nsona K. ↓, Miguel Sousa ↑,
76', Brito R. ↓, Nhaga R. ↑,
79', Sudakov G. ↓, Barreiro L. ↑,
84', Perez S. ↓, Morais T. ↑,
84', Kaique Rocha ↓, Prieto K. ↑,
87', Rios R. 🟨,
89', Pavlidis V. ↓, Ivanovic F. ↑,
89', Lukebakio D. ↓, Rego J. ↑,
90+1', 2 - 2, Nhaga R. ⚽,
90+5', Rios R. ↓, Araujo H. ↑,
90+6', Sequeira P. 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: ) and 16 in the zone Liga Portugal (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Benfica won 3.

Benfica has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Casa Pia is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Casa Pia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Benfica is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Benfica: Bah A. (Knee Injury) Bruma (Achilles Tendon Injury) Felix N. (Knee Injury) Manu (Knee Injury) Otamendi N. (Yellow Cards) Santos L. (Injury)

There will not play in Casa Pia: Conte A. (Inactive) Kiki (Knee Injury) Mendes C. (Knee Injury) Tchamba D. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Casa Pia: Mandic I. (Inactive) Prieto K. (Inactive)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Benfica won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 12:5. (average 1.7:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Benfica won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:2. (average 2.3:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SL Benfica
UEFA Champions League
05.11.25	Benfica - Bayer Leverkusen	0:1 ✺
Liga Portugal
01.11.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Benfica	0:3 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
29.10.25	Benfica - Tondela	3:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
25.10.25	Benfica - Arouca	5:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
21.10.25	Newcastle United - Benfica	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LWWWL
- Casa Pia
Liga Portugal
01.11.25	Casa Pia - Estrela da Amadora	3:5 ✺
26.10.25	Braga - Casa Pia	4:0 ✺
03.10.25	Casa Pia - Estoril Praia	2:2 ✺
27.09.25	Moreirense - Casa Pia	2:1 ✺
21.09.25	Casa Pia - Famalicão	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLTLT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
25.01.25	Casa Pia - Benfica	3:1
17.08.24	Benfica - Casa Pia	3:0
17.03.24	Casa Pia - Benfica	0:1
28.10.23	Benfica - Casa Pia	1:1
04.02.23	Benfica - Casa Pia	3:0
13.08.22	Casa Pia - Benfica	0:1
Club Friendly
16.07.21	Benfica - Casa Pia	2:1

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