Match Info
Serie D - Group F - Round 27Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday
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Castelfidardo |
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Recanatese |
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1 |
X |
2 |
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 |
2.42 |
3.05 |
2.68 |
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 |
2.51 |
3.08 |
2.63 |
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 |
2.49 |
3.2 |
2.64 |
 Watch |
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2.45 |
2.9 |
2.63 |
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 |
2.46 |
3.56 |
2.62 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.47 ↑
(2.39) |
3.16 ↑
(3.08) |
2.64 ↓
(2.74) |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
- The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Castelfidardo
36.8% | Draw
28.8% | Recanatese
34.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Castelfidardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)Recanatese has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Castelfidardo than the current prediction. (+1.9%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Recanatese than the current prediction. (-2.3%)Castelfidardo - Recanatese Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (2 - 1)
- 3', 0 - 1, ⚽,
- 29', 1 - 1, ⚽,
- 35', 2 - 1, ⚽,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 88', 🟥,
Preview
In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 14 in the zone Serie D ~ Group F (Play Out: )).In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Castelfidardo won 2.The current form of both teams is below expectations. In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Castelfidardo won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:20. (average 1.3:1.8).Including home matches between the teams, Castelfidardo won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:7. (average 1:1.2).
Standings
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
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| 15 | Recanatese | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8:9 | -1 | 6 |
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Last Results with these Odds
Recanatese - the odds 2.74 are the expected chance of winning is 32.96%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| Italian Serie D - Group F | | | 02.11.25 | Recanatese - Castelfidardo | 3:1 | | 09.03.25 | Castelfidardo - Recanatese | 1:1 | | 11.05.22 | Recanatese - Castelfidardo | 2:3 | | 19.12.21 | Castelfidardo - Recanatese | 0:2 | | 16.05.21 | Castelfidardo - Recanatese | 2:1 | | 17.01.21 | Recanatese - Castelfidardo | 1:1 | | 18.03.18 | Recanatese - Castelfidardo | 5:1 |
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