Match Info

Serie D - Group F - Round 25

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Nicola Tubaldi (Recanati)


	Recanatese		Atletico Ascoli

	1	X	2
	3.25	3.3	1.98
	3.16	3.37	2.09	Watch
	3.14	3.4	2.19
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.18 ↑ (3.07)	3.36 ↑ (3.25)	2.09 ↓ (2.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Recanatese
28.8%

Draw
27.3%

Atletico Ascoli
43.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.5%

27.8%

42.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.9%

27.2%

43.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Recanatese has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Atletico Ascoli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Recanatese than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atletico Ascoli than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Recanatese - Atletico Ascoli Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
39', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
54', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 14 in the zone Serie D ~ Group F (Play Out: ) and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D ~ Group F (Play Offs: )).

Recent form of Recanatese has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Atletico Ascoli has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Atletico Ascoli is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Recanatese won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Atletico Ascoli	6	2	1	3	6:8	-2	7
15	Recanatese	6	1	3	2	8:9	-1	6

Last Results with these Odds

Recanatese - the odds 3.07 are the expected chance of winning is 29.47%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- USD Recanatese 1923
Italian Serie D - Group F
15.02.26	Ostia Mare - Recanatese	4:1 ✺
08.02.26	Recanatese - Ancona	2:4 ✺
01.02.26	San Marino Calcio - Recanatese	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Recanatese - L Aquila	0:2 ✺
18.01.26	Termoli - Recanatese	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLTLW
- Atletico Ascoli
Italian Serie D - Group F
15.02.26	Atletico Ascoli - Castelfidardo	3:1 ✺
08.02.26	Atletico Ascoli - San Marino Calcio	3:0 ✺
01.02.26	Ostia Mare - Atletico Ascoli	2:2 ✺
25.01.26	Atletico Ascoli - Termoli	1:1 ✺
18.01.26	Ancona - Atletico Ascoli	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WWTTL

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie D - Group F
19.10.25	Atletico Ascoli - Recanatese	2:0
26.01.25	Atletico Ascoli - Recanatese	1:1

Recanatese - Atletico Ascoli: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide