Match Info

Date: 24 May 2021, Monday


	Castellón		Rayo Vallecano

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.2	1.85	Watch
	4.4	3.25	1.87
	4.3	3.3	1.9	Watch
	4.2	3.3	1.85
	4.62	3.51	1.89
	4.5	3.3	1.83	Watch
	4.7	3.28	1.88	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.46 ↑ (3.92)	3.31 ↑ (3.03)	1.87 ↓ (2.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Castellón
21.1%

Draw
28.5%

Rayo Vallecano
50.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.8%

30.9%

45.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.5%

24%

58.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castellón has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Rayo Vallecano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Rayo Vallecano's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castellón than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rayo Vallecano could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.5%	2.1%	87.4%

Castellón - Rayo Vallecano Predictions

Users Predictions: Rayo Vallecano will win (83 of 95 users predict this - 87.37%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.69% – 94.05%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Limited number of spectators.

Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 7).

Castellón has the most likely position - 20 (31.25%), has project points - 43, has currently - 41, has a good chance of relegated (86%), has not chance of prom. playoffs.

Rayo Vallecano has the most likely position - 7 (39.86%), has project points - 68, has currently - 64, has not chance of relegated, has a good chance of prom. playoffs (60%), has a small chance of promoted (13%), has not chance of win league.

Castellón is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Rayo Vallecano is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Rayo Vallecano could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Rayo Vallecano is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Castellón won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 1-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Castellón
Spanish LaLiga2
20.05.21	Zaragoza - Castellón	3:0 ✺
15.05.21	Castellón - Ponferradina	0:2 ✺
09.05.21	Cartagena - Castellón	1:0 ✺
02.05.21	Castellón - UD Logroñés	0:0 ✺
25.04.21	Tenerife - Castellón	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLLTT
- Rayo Vallecano
Spanish LaLiga2
20.05.21	Rayo Vallecano - Real Oviedo	4:1 ✺
16.05.21	Fuenlabrada - Rayo Vallecano	1:2 ✺
10.05.21	Rayo Vallecano - Leganés	1:1 ✺
03.05.21	Sabadell - Rayo Vallecano	2:0 ✺
26.04.21	Rayo Vallecano - Albacete Balompié	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
21.11.20	Rayo Vallecano - Castellón	2:1

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