Match Info

LaLiga - Round 23

Date: 4 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas (Madrid)

Referee: Hernandez A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, New World Sport App, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv Football, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN 2
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, beIN Sports MENA 8
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Austria	DAZN
Bangladesh	Begin
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	TSN+
Chile	Disney+
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 3
France	beIN Connect
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, SCTV, Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport
Italy	DAZN Italia
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 3
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Maldives	ICE Xtra, Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Norway	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport Premium, Viaplay
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	CANAL+ Sport
Portugal	DAZN 2, DAZN / App, DAZN Portugal
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 2
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Nova Sport 4, Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1 Premium
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South-america	ESPN 2 South
Spain	DAZN Espana, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, DAZN Switzerland
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	LaLiga TV, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	DAZN Espanol, ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
Vietnam	K+, SCTV 15


	Rayo Vallecano		Real Oviedo

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.6	5.25	Watch
	1.71	3.75	4.8
	1.75	3.55	4.95	Watch
	1.75	3.7	5.21
	1.76	3.6	5	Watch
	1.73	3.4	4.8
	1.74	3.69	5.38	Watch
	1.8	3.4	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (1.76)	3.59 ↑ (3.55)	5.05 ↑ (4.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Rayo Vallecano
54.6%

Draw
26.5%

Real Oviedo
18.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.1%

26.8%

19.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.7%

26.1%

19.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rayo Vallecano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Real Oviedo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Oviedo than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	12.8%	2.6%

Rayo Vallecano - Real Oviedo Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Oviedo (2.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Rayo Vallecano (1.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Rayo Vallecano (1.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Rayo Vallecano will win (33 of 39 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.3% – 95.94%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Rayo Vallecano will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 19 Selected Experts predict this event. Rayo Vallecano (votes: 15 - 78.9%). Oviedo (votes: 1 - 5.3%). Tie (votes: 3 - 15.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Batalla A. (G) 2. Ratiu A. 24. Lejeune F. 5. Luiz Felipe 3. Chavarria P. 17. Lopez U. 6. Ciss P. 4. Diaz P. 12. Akhomach I. 19. de Frutos J. 18. Garcia A. (C)	13. Escandell A. (G) 24. Ahijado L. 12. Calvo D. (C) 16. Carmo D. 25. Lopez J. 10. Hassan H. 6. Sibo K. 11. Colombatto S. 7. Chaira I. 5. Reina A. 9. Vinas F.
Substitutes
9. Alemao 20. Balliu I. 10. Camello S. 1. Cardenas D. (G) 15. Gumbau G. 14. Martin C. 32. Mendy N. 22. Pacha 7. Palazon I. 21. Perez F. 8. Trejo O. 23. Valentin O.	27. Agudin P. 3. Alhassane R. 17. Borbas T. 8. Cazorla S. 33. Espi 15. Fernandez T. 23. Fonseca N. 19. Fores A. 21. Ilic L. 1. Moldovan H. (G) 22. Vidal N.
Coaches
Perez I.	Almada G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
35', Sibo K. 🟨,
44', 1 - 0, de Frutos J. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Sibo K. ↓, Cazorla S. ↑,
46', Chaira I. ↓, Fernandez T. ↑,
50', 2 - 0, de Frutos J. (Penalty Awarded),
53', Reina A. 🟨,
61', Hassan H. ↓, Ilic L. ↑,
61', Colombatto S. ↓, Fonseca N. ↑,
62', 3 - 0, Garcia A. ⚽,
65', Diaz P. ↓, Palazon I. ↑,
65', de Frutos J. ↓, Perez F. ↑,
69', Akhomach I. ↓, Trejo O. ↑,
74', Vinas F. ↓, Borbas T. ↑,
88', Garcia A. ↓, Alemao ↑,
88', Ciss P. ↓, Balliu I. ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Rayo Vallecano won 1.

Rayo Vallecano is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Oviedo has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Rayo Vallecano is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Rayo Vallecano: Chavarria P. (Red Card) Ciss P. (Red Card) Mendez D. (Injury)

There will not play in Oviedo: Alhassane R. (Muscle Injury) Ejaria O. (Injury)

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Rayo Vallecano won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:11. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Rayo Vallecano won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 10:5. (average 2:1).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Rayo Vallecano: 0.28%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11:16	-5	8

Last Results with these Odds

Rayo Vallecano - the odds 1.76 are the expected chance of winning is 54.06%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rayo Vallecano
Spanish LaLiga
28.02.26	Rayo Vallecano - Athletic Bilbao	1:1 ✺
21.02.26	Betis - Rayo Vallecano	1:1 ✺
15.02.26	Rayo Vallecano - Atlético Madrid	3:0 ✺
01.02.26	Real Madrid - Rayo Vallecano	2:1 ✺
24.01.26	Rayo Vallecano - Osasuna	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.9 TTWLL
- Real Oviedo
Spanish LaLiga
28.02.26	Real Oviedo - Atlético Madrid	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Real Sociedad - Real Oviedo	3:3 ✺
15.02.26	Real Oviedo - Athletic Bilbao	1:2 ✺
31.01.26	Real Oviedo - Girona	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Barcelona - Real Oviedo	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
23.11.25	Real Oviedo - Rayo Vallecano	0:0
Spanish LaLiga2
20.05.21	Rayo Vallecano - Real Oviedo	4:1
22.10.20	Real Oviedo - Rayo Vallecano	0:0
09.02.20	Rayo Vallecano - Real Oviedo	1:1
01.12.19	Real Oviedo - Rayo Vallecano	2:1
12.01.18	Rayo Vallecano - Real Oviedo	2:2
20.08.17	Real Oviedo - Rayo Vallecano	2:3

Upcoming Matches