Match Info

Serie C - Group C - Round 8

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadio Angelo Massimino (Catania)

Referee: Tropiano R. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia


	Catania		Crotone

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.50	3.80	5.25
	1.52	3.75	5.5	Watch
	1.55	3.89	6.25
	1.54	3.78	5.7	Watch
	1.51	3.65	5.85
	1.57	4.26	5.6	Watch
	1.53	3.8	5.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↑ (1.44)	3.85 ↓ (4.12)	5.65 ↓ (6.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Catania
59.9%

Draw
23.8%

Crotone
16.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.8%

22.3%

13.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.1%

21.5%

13.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Catania has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

Crotone has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Catania than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Catania, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crotone than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Catania - Crotone Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
57. Dini A. (G) 68. Ierardi M. 15. Di Gennaro M. 5. Perrotta M. 7. Bruzzaniti G. 16. Quaini A. 4. Vallocchia A. 32. Masciangelo E. 18. Cavuoti N. 10. Cicerelli E. (C) 23. Lunetta G.	12. Pio Martino A. (G) 63. Veltri A. 13. Armini N. 26. Tanco G. J. 23. Groppelli F. 99. Crapisto F. 80. Grosso F. 37. Barcella K. 11. Brignola E. 10. Musso A. (C) 96. Zunno M.
Substitutes
6. Allegretto A. 35. Cabianca E. 8. Caligara F. 70. Catania N. 11. Caturano S. 9. Coda M. 30. Corbari A. 20. Donnarumma D. 94. Insigne R. 21. Liguori M. 1. Rinaldi F. (G) 28. Torrasi E.	28. Andreoni C. 19. Feola W. 25. Guerra W. 22. Lucano A. (G) 44. Pierangeli L. 31. Rodriguez P. 83. Ruggiero Z. 17. Russo D. 5. Russo L. 7. Stauciuc B. 18. Tordini M. 8. Torres I.
Coaches
Longo E.	Greco L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Zunno M. ⚽,
27', Barcella K. 🟨,
39', Quaini A. 🟨,
42', Cavuoti N. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Cavuoti N. ↓, Insigne R. ↑,
46', Quaini A. ↓, Caligara F. ↑,
46', Di Gennaro M. ↓, Cabianca E. ↑,
46', Bruzzaniti G. ↓, Coda M. ↑,
66', Brignola E. ↓, Tordini M. ↑,
66', Barcella K. ↓, Rodriguez P. ↑,
69', 1 - 1, Insigne R. ⚽,
80', Crapisto F. ↓, Andreoni C. ↑,
86', Grosso F. ↓, Ruggiero Z. ↑,
89', Masciangelo E. ↓, Liguori M. ↑,
90+4', 2 - 1, Coda M. (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

A mid-table side takes on an opponent fighting to pull away from the danger zone (ranked 8th in the Promotion - Serie C - Promotion - Play Offs (1/32 - finals) and 20th in the Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Catania won 1.

Catania is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Performances by Crotone have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Catania carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 11 head-to-head meetings, Catania has recorded 3 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal aggregate of 12:16 (averaging 1.1:1.5 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Catania against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 9:6 goals (averaging 1.5:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Catania	8	4	1	3	14:10	4	13
20	Crotone	8	1	3	4	8:12	-4	0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Calcio Catania
Italian Serie C Group C
27.09.26	Casertana - Catania	1:2 ✺
19.09.26	Catania - Barletta	0:0 ✺
15.09.26	Picerno - Catania	2:4 ✺
12.09.26	Catania - Scafatese	1:2 ✺
07.09.26	Catania - Nuova Cosenza	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WTWLW
- FC Crotone
Italian Serie C Group C
26.09.26	Crotone - Salernitana	2:1 ✺
20.09.26	Monopoli - Crotone	2:2 ✺
15.09.26	Crotone - Inter U23	0:2 ✺
12.09.26	Savoia - Crotone	1:1 ✺
05.09.26	Crotone - Barletta	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WTLTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie C Group C
13.04.26	Crotone - Catania	2:0
05.12.25	Catania - Crotone	2:0
Coppa Italia Serie C
17.08.25	Crotone - Catania	1:0
Italian Serie C Group C
23.03.25	Catania - Crotone	0:0
10.11.24	Crotone - Catania	3:2
Coppa Italia Serie C
18.08.24	Catania - Crotone	2:1 penalties
Italian Serie C Group C
07.01.24	Crotone - Catania	3:0

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