Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 16

Date: 9 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Francisco Stedile (Caxias do Sul)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, IT tv Plus, Sky+, Zapping


	Caxias		ABC

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.85	3	4.1
	2.02	2.88	3.75	Watch
	2.06	3.05	4.12
	2.85	2.11	4.00	Watch
	1.91	2.9	4.2
	1.97	3.02	3.84	Watch
	1.85	3.3	4.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↑ (1.84)	2.89 ↓ (3.35)	4.01 ↑ (3.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caxias
44.8%

Draw
32.1%

ABC
23.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.6%

27.3%

23.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.5%

26.3%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caxias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ABC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caxias than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Caxias, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for ABC than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
77.8%	22.2%	0%

Caxias - ABC Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Caxias will win (votes: 7 - 77.8%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Caxias: 50.6% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 0.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Caxias will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Thiago Coelho (G) 33. Alan 25. Calyson 39. Eduardo Melo 11. Iago 4. Lucas Cunha 6. Marcelo 27. Pedro Cuiaba 2. Thiago Ennes 10. Tomas Bastos (C) 23. Vinicius Guedes	12. Pedro Paulo (G) 10. Anderson Rosa 4. Bruno Bispo (C) 7. Carlos Eduardo 21. Ian 18. Jenison 9. Joaozinho 6. Lucas Sampaio 2. Patric 23. Richardson 11. Wallyson
Substitutes
3. Alisson 14. Carlos Henrique 44. Douglas 16. Douglas Skilo 43. Guilherme Mantuan 9. Gustavo Nescau 28. Jhonatan Ribeiro 21. Kelvyn 15. Ronei 32. Victor Golas (G) 19. Welder 7. Yann Rolim	8. Daniel 1. Felipe Garcia (G) 20. Jonatha Carlos 25. Juninho 17. Lucas Mota 16. Manoel 26. Matheus Rocha 5. Randerson 13. Renato Vischi 3. Rodolfo Filemon 15. Windson
Coaches
Junior Rocha	Rodrigo Santana

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Lucas Cunha 🟨,
34', Wallyson 🟨,
40', Anderson Rosa 🟨,
43', Lucas Sampaio 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Lucas Cunha ↓, Alisson ↑,
52', Eduardo Melo 🟨,
56', Joaozinho ↓, Matheus Rocha ↑,
62', Eduardo Melo ↓, Welder ↑,
70', Iago ↓, Douglas Skilo ↑,
70', Pedro Cuiaba ↓, Yann Rolim ↑,
74', Jenison ↓, Daniel ↑,
75', Anderson Rosa ↓, Juninho ↑,
75', Ian ↓, Randerson ↑,
83', Tomas Bastos ↓, Guilherme Mantuan ↑,
84', 1 - 0, Alan ⚽,
85', Wallyson ↓, Jonatha Carlos ↑,
89', Calyson 🟨,
90+1', Yann Rolim 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 14).

Caxias is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

ABC has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Caxias is considered a favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Caxias won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 0.7:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Caxias won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SER Caxias do Sul
Brazilian Serie C
03.08.25	Ypiranga - Caxias	0:1 ✺
27.07.25	Caxias - Ponte Preta	2:1 ✺
21.07.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Caxias	2:0 ✺
13.07.25	Caxias - Anápolis	1:0 ✺
05.07.25	CS Alagoano - Caxias	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 WWLWW
- ABC FC
Brazilian Serie C
02.08.25	ABC - Figueirense	0:0 ✺
26.07.25	Floresta - ABC	1:1 ✺
19.07.25	ABC - Maringá	3:3 ✺
12.07.25	Tombense - ABC	1:2 ✺
05.07.25	Confiança - ABC	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 TTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
18.08.24	Caxias - ABC	2:0
Brazilian Serie D
17.10.21	ABC - Caxias	3:0
10.10.21	Caxias - ABC	0:0

Caxias - ABC: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide