Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 14

Date: 27 July 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Francisco Stedile (Caxias do Sul)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Sky+, Zapping


	Caxias		Ponte Preta

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.25	2.8	3.1
	2.02	2.82	3.8	Watch
	2.09	3.05	3.96
	3.86	3.46	1.90	Watch
	2.38	2.62	3.2
	2.06	2.89	4.22	Watch
	2.25	3	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↑ (2.25)	2.95 ↓ (3)	3.31 ↑ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caxias
39.2%

Draw
32.1%

Ponte Preta
28.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

30%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.7%

28.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caxias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Ponte Preta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caxias than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	42.9%	14.3%

Caxias - Ponte Preta Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Caxias will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Ponte Preta will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Caxias (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Thiago Coelho (G) 33. Alan 25. Calyson 39. Eduardo Melo 11. Iago 4. Lucas Cunha 6. Marcelo 27. Pedro Cuiaba 2. Thiago Ennes 10. Tomas Bastos (C) 23. Vinicius Guedes	1. Pedro Rocha (G) 15. Artur 77. Bruno Lopes 33. Danrlei Santos 18. Emerson Santos 7. Jean Dias (C) 9. Jeh 55. Leo Oliveira 27. Luiz Felipe 2. Maguinho 34. Wanderson
Substitutes
3. Alisson 44. Douglas 16. Douglas Skilo 43. Guilherme Mantuan 9. Gustavo Nescau 28. Jhonatan Ribeiro 21. Kelvyn 5. Lorran 15. Ronei 32. Victor Golas (G) 19. Welder 7. Yann Rolim	35. Diego Tavares 21. Dudu 10. Elvis 17. Jonas Toro 36. Leocovick 25. Lucas Candido 30. Matheus Kayser (G) 28. Pacheco 5. Rodrigo Souza 4. Saimon 6. Sergio Raphael
Coaches
Junior Rocha	Alberto Valentim

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, Jeh ⚽,
20', 1 - 1, Calyson ⚽,
22', Jeh 🟨,
45+4', Vinicius Guedes 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Jean Dias ↓, Diego Tavares ↑,
51', Calyson 🟨,
52', Bruno Lopes 🟨,
62', Bruno Lopes ↓, Leocovick ↑,
66', Leocovick 🟨,
68', Calyson ↓, Douglas Skilo ↑,
69', Eduardo Melo ↓, Gustavo Nescau ↑,
71', Jeh ↓, Pacheco ↑,
76', Pedro Rocha 🟨,
81', Iago 🟨,
83', Iago ↓, Alisson ↑,
84', Marcelo ↓, Jhonatan Ribeiro ↑,
88', Maguinho ↓, Jonas Toro ↑,
88', Luiz Felipe ↓, Rodrigo Souza ↑,
90+2', Pedro Cuiaba ↓, Lorran ↑,
90+6', Artur 🟨,
90+8', 2 - 1, Lorran ⚽,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: )).

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Caxias may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Caxias could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Ponte Preta - the odds 3 are the expected chance of winning is 30%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SER Caxias do Sul
Brazilian Serie C
21.07.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Caxias	2:0 ✺
13.07.25	Caxias - Anápolis	1:0 ✺
05.07.25	CS Alagoano - Caxias	2:3 ✺
29.06.25	Caxias - Ituano	2:1 ✺
14.06.25	Botafogo PB - Caxias	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.8 LWWWW
- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie C
19.07.25	Ponte Preta - Floresta	2:1 ✺
12.07.25	São Bernardo - Ponte Preta	2:0 ✺
07.07.25	Ponte Preta - Tombense	1:0 ✺
28.06.25	Maringá - Ponte Preta	0:1 ✺
14.06.25	Ponte Preta - ABC	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WLWWT

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