Match Info

Serie C - First stage - Round 17

Date: 18 August 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida (Tombos)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, DAZN Brasil, IT tv Plus, Sky+, Zapping


	Tombense		Caxias

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.85	2.75	2.45
	2.68	2.72	2.72	Watch
	2.97	2.75	2.76
	2.20	2.93	3.59	Watch
	2.8	2.7	2.5
	2.75	2.75	2.63	Watch
	2.47	3.05	2.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (2.4)	2.81 ↓ (2.98)	2.79 ↓ (2.82)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tombense
34.3%

Draw
32.7%

Caxias
32.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.6%

30.3%

32%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

31.3%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tombense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Caxias has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tombense than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Caxias than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	25%	75%

Tombense - Caxias Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Caxias will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Caxias (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Caxias (2.64) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Tombense (1.49) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Tombense (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Caxias (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Matheus Aurelio (G) 11. Anderson Ligeiro 5. Claudinei 6. Dudu Mandai 8. Fabricio Dias 3. Ianson 10. Jefferson Renan 2. Julio Henrique 7. Pedro Oliveira 9. Rafhael Lucas 4. Roger Carvalho (C)	32. Victor Golas (G) 3. Alisson (C) 44. Douglas 16. Douglas Skilo 43. Guilherme Mantuan 28. Jhonatan Ribeiro 21. Kelvyn 5. Lorran 15. Ronei 19. Welder 7. Yann Rolim
Substitutes
25. Adson 21. Andre Cardoso 13. Breno Roma 20. Cleiton 12. Douglas Marques (G) 14. Fernando 18. Joao Vitor 22. Jupi 16. Kaike 17. Vasconcelos H. 15. Wesley 19. Ze Eduardo	25. Calyson 14. Carlos Henrique 9. Gustavo Nescau 50. Leozinho 6. Marcelo 31. Matheus Silva (G) 8. Paulinho Souza 2. Thiago Ennes 23. Vinicius Guedes
Coaches
Marcelo Chamusca	Junior Rocha

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
9', Dudu Mandai 🟨,
31', Douglas 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
66', Julio Henrique 🟨,
68', Douglas Skilo ↓, Gustavo Nescau ↑,
74', Rafhael Lucas ↓, Ze Eduardo ↑,
79', 🟨,
90+5', 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie D and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie C (Second stage: )).

Caxias is Qualified for Serie C (Second stage )

Tombense has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Caxias is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Tombense won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:2. (average 1.7:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Tombense won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:1. (average 1.5:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tombense FC
Brazilian Serie C
10.08.25	Floresta - Tombense	1:0 ✺
03.08.25	São Bernardo - Tombense	2:0 ✺
28.07.25	Tombense - Maringá	1:1 ✺
20.07.25	Confiança - Tombense	3:2 ✺
12.07.25	Tombense - ABC	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLTLL
- SER Caxias do Sul
Brazilian Serie C
09.08.25	Caxias - ABC	1:0 ✺
03.08.25	Ypiranga - Caxias	0:1 ✺
27.07.25	Caxias - Ponte Preta	2:1 ✺
21.07.25	Náutico Capibaribe - Caxias	2:0 ✺
13.07.25	Caxias - Anápolis	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
26.06.24	Tombense - Caxias	2:1
15.08.15	Caxias - Tombense	1:2
30.05.15	Tombense - Caxias	1:0

Tombense - Caxias: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide