Match Info

Serie B - Round 32

Date: 8 October 2026, Thursday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Mendes F. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+, ESPN, SportyNet, Xsports


	Ceará		Criciúma

	1	X	2
	2.57	3.20	2.70	Watch
	2.65	3.10	2.50
	2.55	3.05	2.85	Watch
	2.70	3.23	2.85
	2.71	3.14	2.66	Watch
	2.70	3.15	2.70
	2.48	3.17	2.86	Watch
	2.65	3.10	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↑ (2.48)	3.14 ↑ (3.05)	2.72 ↓ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
35.7%

Draw
29.8%

Criciúma
34.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

30.6%

31.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.5%

30%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

Criciúma has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Criciúma than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	100%	0%

Ceará - Criciúma Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. It will Tie (votes: 7 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Ceará (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ceará (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Richard (G) 18. Julio Cesar 4. Luiz Otavio 13. Luiz Otavio (C) 12. Sanchez 25. Vinicius Zanocelo 81. Joao Gabriel 60. Enzo Lodovico 29. Vina 8. Matheus Araujo 94. Lopez R.	32. Airton (G) 6. Marcinho 3. Rodrigo (C) 4. Luciano Castan 22. Marcelo Hermes 14. Ronald Lopes 41. Jean Irmer 7. Fellipe Mateus 10. Jhonata Robert 33. Yuri Tanque 91. Otero R.
Substitutes
23. Caique Franca (G) 33. Eder 11. Ferreira Berrondo M. N. 7. Giovanni Pavani 78. Janderson 77. Lenny Lobato 10. Lucas Mugni 99. Lucca 22. Matheus Nogueira (G) 2. Ramos R. 16. Rian Santana 26. Richardson	1. Alisson (G) 34. Bruno Alves 88. Caue Santos 37. Cesar Martins 5. Eduardo 31. Hiago Alves 21. Joao Carlos 70. Pedro Santos (G) 11. Romarinho 50. Thiaguinho 97. Willean Lepo
Coaches
Daniel Paulista	Umberto Louzer

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
44', Marcelo Hermes 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
48', Rodrigo 🟨,
54', Otero R. ↓, Romarinho ↑,
63', Enzo Lodovico ↓, Rian Santana ↑,
63', Lopez R. ↓, Lenny Lobato ↑,
67', Ronald Lopes 🟨,
68', Yuri Tanque ↓, Caue Santos ↑,
69', Fellipe Mateus ↓, Willean Lepo ↑,
75', Ronald Lopes ↓, Eduardo ↑,
75', Jhonata Robert ↓, Joao Carlos ↑,
78', Vina 🟨,
78', Vina ↓, Lucca ↑,
78', Julio Cesar ↓, Ramos R. ↑,
84', Matheus Araujo ↓, Lucas Mugni ↑,
88', 1 - 0, Lenny Lobato ⚽, Vinicius Zanocelo (A),

Preview

An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 15th and 5th in the Promotion - Serie B (Promotion - Playoffs - Final)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 3.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Recently, Ceará has faced a series of away games on the road.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

Confirmed absences for Ceará: Ferreira Berrondo M. N. (Inactive) Gabriel Rocha (Foot Injury) Gilmar (Injury) Saulo Mineiro (Inactive) Savio (Inactive) Thalisson (Knee Injury) Wendel Silva (Inactive).

Confirmed absences for Criciúma: Gui Lobo (Yellow Cards) Waguininho (Yellow Cards).

Doubtful / questionable for Criciúma: Willean Lepo (Inactive).

In the last 11 head-to-head meetings, Ceará has recorded 6 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 14:12 (averaging 1.3:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ceará against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 6:2 goals (averaging 1.2:0.4 per game).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Criciuma: 2.45% Ceara: 0.22%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Criciuma	32	15	8	9	33:28	5	53
14	Ceara	32	11	9	12	35:39	-4	42

Last Results with these Odds

Ceará - the odds 2.48 are the expected chance of winning is 37.68%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie B
03.10.26	Avaí - Ceará	0:1 ✺
26.09.26	Operário Ferroviario - Ceará	2:2 ✺
18.09.26	Ceará - Grêmio Novorizontino	2:1 ✺
13.09.26	Fortaleza - Ceará	1:1 ✺
09.09.26	Atlético Goianiense - Ceará	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 WTWTL
- Criciúma EC
Brazilian Serie B
02.10.26	Londrina - Criciúma	0:2 ✺
27.09.26	Criciúma - Avaí	3:0 ✺
22.09.26	Criciúma - Operário Ferroviario	0:2 ✺
13.09.26	Atlético Goianiense - Criciúma	4:0 ✺
08.09.26	Criciúma - Juventude	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
15.06.26	Criciúma - Ceará	1:1
02.09.23	Ceará - Criciúma	1:0
21.05.23	Criciúma - Ceará	1:2
18.11.17	Criciúma - Ceará	1:1
01.08.17	Ceará - Criciúma	3:1
08.11.16	Criciúma - Ceará	2:3
16.07.16	Ceará - Criciúma	1:0

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