Match Info

Serie B - Round 29

Date: 18 September 2026, Friday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Vasconcelos B. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+


	Ceará		Grêmio Novorizontino

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.10	2.50	Watch
	2.80	3.10	2.37
	2.80	3.20	2.50	Watch
	3.07	3.29	2.46
	2.77	3.2	2.57	Watch
	2.85	3.20	2.55
	3.01	3.08	2.43	Watch
	2.90	3.10	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↓ (3.15)	3.16 ↓ (3.25)	2.48 ↑ (2.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
32.5%

Draw
29.6%

Grêmio Novorizontino
37.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.6%

28.7%

41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.1%

28.2%

42.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Grêmio Novorizontino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (+4.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	50%	50%

Ceará - Grêmio Novorizontino Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Novorizontino will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.75 - over (1.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Richard (G) 31. Bryan Borges 4. Luiz Otavio 13. Luiz Otavio (C) 12. Sanchez 81. Joao Gabriel 18. Julio Cesar 60. Enzo Lodovico 40. Melk 11. Ferreira Berrondo M. N. 73. Saulo Mineiro	93. Jordi (G) 2. Madson 26. Gabriel Bahia 4. Patrick 5. Sander 17. Matheus Bianqui 6. Luis Oyama 41. Reidiney 10. Romulo 30. Nicolas Careca 11. Robson (C)
Substitutes
23. Caique Franca (G) 7. Giovanni Pavani 77. Lenny Lobato 10. Lucas Mugni 99. Lucca 8. Matheus Araujo 2. Ramos R. 16. Rian Santana 26. Richardson 6. Savio 29. Vina 45. Vini Uchella	9. Carlao 3. Carlinhos 31. Cesar Augusto (G) 19. Diego Galo 14. Eduardo Brock 50. Juninho 18. Leo Naldi 28. Marlon 66. Maykon Jesus 15. Tavinho 16. Vinicius Paiva
Coaches
Daniel Paulista	Moreira E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', Julio Cesar 🟨,
10', Patrick 🟨,
45+1', Enderson Moreira 🟨,
45+2', Bryan Borges 🟨,
45+4', 0 - 1, Matheus Bianqui ⚽, Madson (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Ferreira Berrondo M. N. ↓, Rian Santana ↑,
46', Julio Cesar ↓, Matheus Araujo ↑,
48', 1 - 1, Melk ⚽,
55', Joao Gabriel 🟨,
61', 2 - 1, Rian Santana ⚽, Enzo Lodovico (A),
67', Reidiney ↓, Juninho ↑,
67', Nicolas Careca ↓, Diego Galo ↑,
79', Luis Oyama ↓, Carlao ↑,
79', Romulo ↓, Vinicius Paiva ↑,
80', Enzo Lodovico ↓, Richardson ↑,
82', Matheus Bianqui 🟨,
87', Matheus Bianqui ↓, Tavinho ↑,
87', Joao Gabriel ↓, Lucas Mugni ↑,
90+6', Robson 🟨,
90+7', Melk ↓, Vina ↑,
90+9', Richardson 🟨,
90+10', Juninho 🟨,

Preview

An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 15th and 1st in the Promotion ~ Serie A Betano).

In recent outings, Ceará has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Novorizontino is in superb form heading into this trip (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

Confirmed absences for Ceará: Eder (Knee Injury) Gabriel Rocha (Injury) Gilmar (Injury) Matheus Nogueira (Inactive) Thalisson (Knee Injury).

Confirmed absences for Novorizontino: Renato Palm (Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Novorizontino: Ortiz C. (Injury) Tavares Miguel (Injury).

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Ceará has recorded 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 6:9 (averaging 1.2:1.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Ceará against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 1:3 goals (averaging 0.5:1.5 per game).

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Novorizontino: 12.63% Ceara: 0.22%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Novorizontino	31	15	9	7	52:27	25	54
15	Ceara	31	10	9	12	34:39	-5	39

Last Results with these Odds

Ceará - the odds 3.15 are the expected chance of winning is 29.57%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie B
13.09.26	Fortaleza - Ceará	1:1 ✺
09.09.26	Atlético Goianiense - Ceará	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Ceará - Sport Recife	2:1 ✺
30.08.26	Vila Nova - Ceará	2:0 ✺
22.08.26	Ceará - Londrina	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TLWLW
- Grêmio Novorizontino
Brazilian Serie B
13.09.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
09.09.26	Botafogo SP - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:3 ✺
05.09.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Avaí	3:1 ✺
28.08.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Sport Recife	2:1 ✺
24.08.26	Athletic Club - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
23.05.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - Ceará	2:1
26.08.24	Ceará - Grêmio Novorizontino	1:0
10.05.24	Grêmio Novorizontino - Ceará	0:3
18.09.23	Grêmio Novorizontino - Ceará	4:1
28.05.23	Ceará - Grêmio Novorizontino	0:3

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