Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 27

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Mexico	Fanatiz
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Usa	Fanatiz


	Ceará		Santos

	1	X	2
	2.5	3	3	Watch
	2.37	3.1	3.2
	2.52	2.92	2.98
	2.58	3.03	3.24
	1.47	3.84	8.16	Watch
	2.45	3.15	3.17	Watch
	2.37	3	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↑ (2.24)	3.15 ↓ (3.17)	3.85 ↑ (3.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
42.7%

Draw
31.5%

Santos
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.1%

29.8%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

30.6%

27.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Santos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santos than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	11.1%	22.2%

Ceará - Santos Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Ceará will win (votes: 12 - 70.6%). Santos will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ceará: 48.9% – 92.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Ceará (votes: 8 - 66.7%). Santos (votes: 4 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Ceará (1.34) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Ceará (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Santos (votes: 4 - 30.8%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 70. Fabiano 44. Marcos Victor 23. Willian Machado 79. Matheus Bahia 97. Lourenco 20. Diego 27. Galeano A. 10. Lucas Mugni 77. Fernandinho 9. Pedro Raul	77. Gabriel Brazao (G) 18. Igor Vinicius 23. Duarte A. 98. Frias A. 31. Escobar G. 5. Joao Schmidt 8. Rincon T. 32. Rollheiser B. 6. Ze Rafael 11. Guilherme 19. Diaz L.
Substitutes
11. Aylon 33. Eder 88. Fernando Sobral 99. Lucca 3. Marllon 30. Nicolas 17. Paulo Baya 7. Pedro Henrique 2. Ramos R. 26. Richardson 29. Vina	15. Arao W. 22. Barreal A. 21. Brahimi B. 17. Caballero G. 12. Diogenes (G) 49. Gabriel Bontempo 14. Luan Peres 7. Robson Junior 33. Souza 16. Thaciano 9. Tiquinho Soares 27. Ze Ivaldo
Coaches
Leo Conde	Vojvoda J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Lucas Mugni ⚽, Pedro Raul (A),
37', Lourenco 🟨,
39', Rollheiser B. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Rincon T. ↓, Barreal A. ↑,
55', Igor Vinicius 🟨,
63', Fernandinho ↓, Pedro Henrique ↑,
63', Lucas Mugni ↓, Vina ↑,
66', 2 - 0, Pedro Henrique ⚽, Galeano A. (A),
67', Escobar G. ↓, Souza ↑,
67', Igor Vinicius ↓, Caballero G. ↑,
72', Diego ↓, Fernando Sobral ↑,
72', Lourenco ↓, Richardson ↑,
76', Guilherme ↓, Tiquinho Soares ↑,
82', Rollheiser B. ↓, Thaciano ↑,
86', Tiquinho Soares 🟨,
90', Galeano A. ↓, Paulo Baya ↑,
90+4', 3 - 0, Fernando Sobral ⚽, Pedro Henrique (A),

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 13 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Ceará may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ceará might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Ceará: Fernandinho (Inactive) Lucca (Inactive)

There will not play in Santos: Gabriel Bontempo (Ankle Injury) Joao Basso (Injury) Neymar (Thigh Injury) Victor Hugo (Injury)

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 7:14. (average 0.5:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Ceará won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 0.6:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie A
02.10.25	Vitória Salvador - Ceará	1:0 ✺
29.09.25	São Paulo - Ceará	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Ceará - Bahia	1:1 ✺
14.09.25	Vasco da Gama - Ceará	2:2 ✺
30.08.25	Ceará - Juventude	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.5 LWTTL
- Santos FC
Brazilian Serie A
01.10.25	Santos - Grêmio	1:1 ✺
28.09.25	Red Bull Bragantino - Santos	2:2 ✺
21.09.25	Santos - São Paulo	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Atlético Mineiro - Santos	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Santos - Fluminense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.1 TTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
12.05.25	Santos - Ceará	0:0
Brazilian Serie B
22.10.24	Santos - Ceará	1:0
05.07.24	Ceará - Santos	0:1
Brazilian Serie A
10.09.22	Ceará - Santos	2:1
21.05.22	Santos - Ceará	0:0
18.09.21	Ceará - Santos	0:0
05.06.21	Santos - Ceará	3:1

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