Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 29

Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Castelão (Fortaleza)

Referee: Lacerda D. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	DAZN
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Mexico	Fanatiz
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Usa	Fanatiz


	Ceará		Botafogo RJ

	1	X	2
	2.5	3	3.1	Watch
	2.42	2.98	3.05
	2.5	3.07	3.29
	2.49	2.88	3.16	Watch
	2.48	3.08	3.19	Watch
	2.8	3.2	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.53 ↓ (2.76)	3.04 ↓ (3.09)	3.05 ↑ (2.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceará
37.5%

Draw
31.3%

Botafogo RJ
31.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.9%

30.3%

35.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.5%

31.6%

37.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceará has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Botafogo RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceará than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Botafogo RJ could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ceará - Botafogo RJ Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Ceará (votes: 1 - 25%). Botafogo (votes: 1 - 25%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
94. Bruno Ferreira (G) 70. Fabiano 3. Marllon (C) 23. Willian Machado 79. Matheus Bahia 97. Lourenco 25. Vinicius Zanocelo 27. Galeano A. 10. Lucas Mugni 77. Fernandinho 9. Pedro Raul	24. Leo Linck (G) 2. Vitinho 21. Marcal (C) 57. David Ricardo 6. Cuiabano 28. Newton 25. Allan 23. Rodriguez S. 30. Correa J. 11. Matheus Martins 9. Ramos C.
Substitutes
11. Aylon 33. Eder 88. Fernando Sobral 15. Gabriel Lacerda 99. Lucca 30. Nicolas 17. Paulo Baya 7. Pedro Henrique 2. Ramos R. 1. Richard (G) 26. Richardson 29. Vina	7. Artur 37. Barria K. 58. Caua Zappelini 26. Gabriel Bahia 39. Gonzalo Mastriani 47. Jeffinho 40. Loor C. (G) 64. Marquinhos 4. Ponte M. 1. Raul Steffens (G)
Coaches
Leo Conde	Ancelotti D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', Matheus Martins ↓, Jeffinho ↑,
39', 0 - 1, Ramos C. ⚽, Rodriguez S. (A),
45+2', Cuiabano 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Lucas Mugni ↓, Vina ↑,
46', Fabiano ↓, Ramos R. ↑,
59', Fernandinho ↓, Pedro Henrique ↑,
66', Correa J. ↓, Artur ↑,
70', Lourenco 🟨,
71', Lourenco ↓, Fernando Sobral ↑,
76', Marcal 🟨,
78', 0 - 2, Jeffinho ⚽,
81', Galeano A. ↓, Paulo Baya ↑,
87', David Ricardo 🟨,
88', Ramos C. ↓, Gonzalo Mastriani ↑,
90+4', Pedro Henrique 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 13 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 1.

Ceará has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Botafogo has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Ceará may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Ceará: Diego (Injury) Marcos Victor (Inactive)

There will not play in Botafogo: Barboza A. (Yellow Cards) Barrera J. (International duty) Bastos (Knee Injury) Danilo (Thigh Injury) Kaio (Knee Injury) Marlon Freitas (Yellow Cards) Montoro A. (International duty) Nathan Fernandes (Arm Injury) Neto (Thigh Injury)

There are questionable in Botafogo: Alex Telles (Knee Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Ceará won 3 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:16. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Ceará won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ceará SC
Brazilian Serie A
15.10.25	Sport Recife - Ceará	1:1 ✺
05.10.25	Ceará - Santos	3:0 ✺
02.10.25	Vitória Salvador - Ceará	1:0 ✺
29.09.25	São Paulo - Ceará	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	Ceará - Bahia	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.3 TWLWT
- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
15.10.25	Botafogo RJ - Flamengo	0:3 ✺
04.10.25	Internacional RS - Botafogo RJ	2:0 ✺
01.10.25	Botafogo RJ - Bahia	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Fluminense - Botafogo RJ	2:0 ✺
24.09.25	Grêmio - Botafogo RJ	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
04.06.25	Botafogo RJ - Ceará	3:2
06.08.22	Botafogo RJ - Ceará	1:1
17.04.22	Ceará - Botafogo RJ	1:3
25.02.21	Ceará - Botafogo RJ	2:1
31.10.20	Botafogo RJ - Ceará	2:2
08.12.19	Botafogo RJ - Ceará	1:1
14.09.19	Ceará - Botafogo RJ	0:0

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