Match Info

MEXICO: LIGA DE EXPANSION MX - CLAUSURA - ROUND 11

Date: 19 March 2023, Sunday

Location: Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés (Celaya)

Referee: Rangel E. (Mex)


	Celaya		Alacranes de Durango

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.66	3.5	4.33
	1.62	3.7	4.8
	1.51	3.75	5
	1.76	3.63	4.91
	1.67	3.4	4.6
	1.71	3.64	4.65
	1.73	3.65	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↑ (1.38)	3.61 ↓ (4)	4.64 ↓ (7.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Celaya
54.9%

Draw
25.3%

Alacranes de Durango
19.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.4%

22.6%

12%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.7%

21.5%

11.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Celaya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Celaya's form might have worsened.

Alacranes de Durango has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alacranes de Durango's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celaya than the current prediction. (+13.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Celaya, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alacranes de Durango than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alacranes de Durango, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Celaya - Alacranes de Durango Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Celaya will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Alacranes de Durango will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and outsider (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 17).

Celaya is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Alacranes de Durango is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Celaya is a favorite.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Celaya won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Including matches at home between the teams Celaya won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Celaya
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
09.03.23	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Celaya	1:2 ✺
03.03.23	Celaya - Tlaxcala	1:1 ✺
22.02.23	Pumas Tabasco - Celaya	0:1 ✺
15.02.23	Atlante - Celaya	1:0 ✺
08.02.23	Celaya - Dorados	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.5 WTWLW
- Alacranes de Durango
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
07.03.23	Alacranes de Durango - Dorados	3:0 ✺
28.02.23	Atlético La Paz - Alacranes de Durango	2:1 ✺
22.02.23	Venados - Alacranes de Durango	1:0 ✺
15.02.23	Alacranes de Durango - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	1:1 ✺
07.02.23	Leones Negros UdeG - Alacranes de Durango	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 WLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
29.10.22	Celaya - Alacranes de Durango	1:0
26.10.22	Alacranes de Durango - Celaya	0:1
25.09.22	Alacranes de Durango - Celaya	1:1

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