Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Clausura - Round 13

Date: 5 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Tlahuicole (Tlaxcala)

Referee: Montes Santos J. O. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Claro Sports, FOX Sports Premium, Hi! Sports, TVC Deportes
Venezuela	Inter
World	Pluto TV


	Tlaxcala		Celaya

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.6	3.4	1.8
	3.25	3.45	2.07	Watch
	3.22	3.45	2.15	Watch
	4.2	3.6	1.73
	3.19	3.48	2.08	Watch
	3.25	3.45	2.07
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.45 ↓ (4.24)	3.47 ↓ (3.74)	1.98 ↑ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tlaxcala
26.8%

Draw
26.6%

Celaya
46.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.8%

24.7%

53.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.4%

24.3%

54.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tlaxcala has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Celaya has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Celaya might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tlaxcala than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tlaxcala that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Celaya than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Celaya could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Tlaxcala - Celaya Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Rodriguez R. (G) 14. Celaya J. 27. Gama D. 4. Gonzalez C. 21. Palma M. 10. Pedroza M. 9. Rios P. 2. Roman S. 3. Santillan F. 28. Santos P. 7. Zamudio J.	1. Hernandez H. (G) 22. Baltazar C. 7. Barragan M. 25. Blanco D. 2. Cervantes D. 6. Del Angel E. 8. de los Santos L. 16. Garcia J. 14. Manriquez S. 3. Monreal E. 11. Tejeda D.
Substitutes
18. Alonso L. 6. Carrillo L. 22. Gonzalez J. (G) 12. Lozano M. 13. Mariscal K. 23. Marquez I. 19. Millan O. 17. Serna A. 5. Zago D.	156. Chaurand K. 10. Dominguez A. 29. Espinoza G. (G) 28. Gamboa J. 21. Hernandez P. 30. Kassi A. 19. Partida E. 18. Recalde B.
Coaches
Orozco L.	Blanco Soto S. R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
12', Rodriguez R. 🟨,
13', 0 - 1, Baltazar C. ⚽,
30', 0 - 2, Barragan M. ⚽,
41', 0 - 3, Barragan M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gama D. ↓, Serna A. ↑,
46', Palma M. ↓, Millan O. ↑,
46', Celaya J. ↓, Lozano M. ↑,
64', Del Angel E. ↓, Dominguez A. ↑,
64', Blanco D. ↓, Gamboa J. ↑,
64', Gonzalez C. 🟥,
71', Zamudio J. 🟨,
72', Zamudio J. ↓, Zago D. ↑,
72', Rios P. ↓, Mariscal K. ↑,
74', Baltazar C. ↓, Recalde B. ↑,
74', Cervantes D. ↓, Hernandez P. ↑,
82', Tejeda D. ↓, Kassi A. ↑,
86', Millan O. 🟨,

Preview

An autsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 12 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Tlaxcala won 0.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Celaya could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Celaya is a favorite.

Last 9 head-to-head matches Tlaxcala won 0 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 4:11 (average 0.4:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Tlaxcala won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2:5 (average 0.5:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tlaxcala FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
29.03.25	Tlaxcala - Dorados	3:2 ✺
21.03.25	Alebrijes de Oaxaca - Tlaxcala	2:3 ✺
15.03.25	Tlaxcala - Cancún	1:1 ✺
09.03.25	Tapatío - Tlaxcala	1:0 ✺
01.03.25	Tlaxcala - Jaiba Brava	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WWTLT
- Atlético Celaya
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
29.03.25	Celaya - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	3:0 ✺
22.03.25	Cancún - Celaya	1:1 ✺
15.03.25	Jaiba Brava - Celaya	0:0 ✺
08.03.25	Celaya - Atlético Morelia	1:0 ✺
01.03.25	Mineros de Zacatecas - Celaya	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WTTWL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
19.10.24	Celaya - Tlaxcala	1:0
29.03.24	Celaya - Tlaxcala	1:1
30.08.23	Tlaxcala - Celaya	1:2
03.03.23	Celaya - Tlaxcala	1:1
17.08.22	Tlaxcala - Celaya	0:1
15.02.22	Tlaxcala - Celaya	0:1
17.08.21	Celaya - Tlaxcala	3:0

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