Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 8

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla (Melo)

Referee: De Armas M. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Mexico	Disney+
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Uruguay	Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Cerro Largo		Nacional Montevideo

	1	X	2
	4.33	3.40	1.70	Watch
	4.33	3.50	1.73
	4.75	3.50	1.65
	4.59	3.52	1.84
	4.76	3.71	1.71	Watch
	4.50	3.45	1.81
	4.51	3.54	1.77	Watch
	4.30	3.50	1.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.51 ↑ (4.43)	3.52 ↑ (3.48)	1.75 ↑ (1.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 7.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerro Largo
20.6%

Draw
26.4%

Nacional Montevideo
53%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.7%

26.4%

52.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

20.2%

25.8%

54.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerro Largo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro Largo than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Cerro Largo - Nacional Montevideo Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Gonzalez Ojeda P. M. (G) 17. Hernandez A. 28. Ramos N. 3. Piegas A. 20. Franca S. 15. Assis S. (C) 37. Segovia A. 8. Garcia M. 5. Marcel S. 29. Lozano B. 10. Pandiani A.	1. Mejia L. (C) 13. Ancheta E. 37. Rodriguez L. 32. Viera T. 7. Rodriguez N. 23. Rodriguez L. 15. Martirena Torres G. N. 6. Boggio L. 29. Correa T. 14. Martinez A. 11. Silvera M.
Substitutes
27. Alvez F. 22. Bertocchi N. 18. Daguerre D. 26. de Leon E. 11. de Luca A. 24. Gonzalez L. (G) 25. Jourdan E. 23. Pipe 9. Piriz L. 7. Viera G.	20. Botta R. 21. Candido C. 10. Dos Santos A. 56. Garcia Lantean J. I. 9. Gomez M. 39. Gonzalez L. 22. Martin A. (G) 31. Martinez R. 8. Silva S. 36. Zuculini B.
Coaches
Ordonez I.	Carreno D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', Rodriguez N. 🟨,
31', 0 - 1, Correa T. ⚽,
43', Silvera M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
54', Garcia M. ↓, Daguerre D. ↑,
54', Martinez A. ↓, Silva S. ↑,
54', Silvera M. ↓, Gomez M. ↑,
57', 0 - 2, Gomez M. ⚽,
63', Pandiani A. ↓, de Luca A. ↑,
72', Rodriguez N. ↓, Candido C. ↑,
79', de Luca A. 🟨,
80', Piegas A. ↓, Bertocchi N. ↑,
80', Segovia A. ↓, de Leon E. ↑,
83', Correa T. ↓, Martinez R. ↑,
83', Rodriguez L. ↓, Zuculini B. ↑,
90', Bertocchi N. 🟨,

Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 12th and 8th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerro Largo won 0.

Cerro Largo is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Nacional shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Nacional may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Bookmakers give the edge to Nacional for this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Cerro Largo has recorded 2 wins, 6 draws, and 12 losses, with a goal aggregate of 14:37 (averaging 0.7:1.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Cerro Largo against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 4 draws, and 5 losses, with 9:21 goals (averaging 0.9:2.1 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Nacional	9	5	2	2	13:9	4	17
14	Cerro Largo	9	0	5	4	6:12	-6	5

Last Results with these Odds

Cerro Largo - the odds 4.43 are the expected chance of winning is 20.74%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Nacional Montevideo - the odds 1.74 are the expected chance of winning is 52.85%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cerro Largo
Uruguayan Primera Division
12.09.26	Cerro Largo - Central Español	0:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
09.09.26	Cerro Largo - Defensor Sporting	1:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
04.09.26	Montevideo City Torque - Cerro Largo	2:1 ✺
30.08.26	Cerro Largo - Liverpool Montevideo	1:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
26.08.26	Plaza Colonia - Cerro Largo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 TTLTL
- Nacional Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division
20.09.26	Nacional Montevideo - Defensor Sporting	3:2 ✺
Uruguay Copa
16.09.26	Progreso - Nacional Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
12.09.26	Montevideo Wanderers - Nacional Montevideo	1:1 ✺
06.09.26	Nacional Montevideo - Juventud de Las Piedras	2:2 ✺
Uruguay Copa
03.09.26	River Plate Montevideo - Nacional Montevideo	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
24.03.26	Nacional Montevideo - Cerro Largo	3:0
Uruguayan Copa de la Liga AUF
17.01.26	Nacional Montevideo - Cerro Largo	2:1 penalties
Uruguayan Primera Division
04.10.25	Nacional Montevideo - Cerro Largo	2:1
06.04.25	Cerro Largo - Nacional Montevideo	0:4
13.10.24	Cerro Largo - Nacional Montevideo	0:1
23.06.24	Cerro Largo - Nacional Montevideo	0:4
06.04.24	Nacional Montevideo - Cerro Largo	1:0

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