The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Cerro Largo 22.3%
Draw 26.8%
Peñarol de Montevideo 50.9%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
18.5%
25.8%
55.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
17.6%
24.6%
58.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cerro Largo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.8%)
Peñarol de Montevideo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerro Largo than the current prediction. (-4.7%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (+7.5%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Peñarol de Montevideo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
0%
22.2%
77.8%
Cerro Largo - Peñarol de Montevideo Predictions
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
O/U 2.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Peñarol de Montevideo will win
(7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%). Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Moreno J. (G) 17. Hernandez A. 14. Correa L. 16. Fracchia M. 20. Franca S. 10. Pandiani A. 15. Assis S. 5. Marcel S. 11. Anasco M. 18. Daguerre D. 9. Correa T.
1. Britos S. (G) 36. Barboza B. 2. Escobar F. 6. Ferreira L. 15. Olivera M. 8. Fernandez N. 21. Jesus Trindade 23. Togni G. 32. Umpierrez L. 93. Laxalt D. 9. Batista F.
Substitutes
13. Barone B. 2. Chocobar G. F. 8. Garcia M. 12. Gonzalez Ojeda P. M. (G) 25. Jourdan E. 3. Piegas A. 28. Ramos N. 19. Sellecchia F. 4. Souza F. 7. Viera G.
22. Alvez F. 18. Barbas G. 20. Daguer J. 31. Diaz L. (G) 25. Gonzalez M. 11. Hernandez A. 27. Lucas Hernandez 30. Muhlethaler S. 16. Olase T. 14. Rodriguez K.
Coaches
Nunez D.
Aguirre D.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
39', Escobar F. ↓, Alvez F. ↑,
45+3', 1 - 0, Daguerre D. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Barboza B. ↓, Hernandez A. ↑,
59', 1 - 1, Batista F. ⚽,
62', Togni G. ↓, Muhlethaler S. ↑,
62', Laxalt D. ↓, Rodriguez K. ↑,
64', Daguerre D. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
68', Hernandez A. 🟨,
69', Rodriguez K. 🟨,
74', 1 - 2, Umpierrez L. ⚽,
78', Anasco M. ↓, Viera G. ↑,
81', Olivera M. 🟨,
83', Marcel S. ↓, Jourdan E. ↑,
83', Pandiani A. ↓, Sellecchia F. ↑,
84', 2 - 2, Sellecchia F. ⚽,
87', 2 - 3, Hernandez A. ⚽,
88', Hernandez A. 🟨,
89', Batista F. ↓, Olase T. ↑,
Preview
Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 4).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerro Largo won 1.
Cerro Largo has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Peñarol is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
Cerro Largo may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Peñarol is considered a favorite.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cerro Largo won 4 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 17:28. (average 0.9:1.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Cerro Largo won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:12. (average 0.8:1.2).
Brazil
Peru
Uruguay
Watch
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Moreno J. (G) 
Hernandez A. 
Escobar F. 
Gonzalez Ojeda P. M. (G) 
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