Match Info

Copa de Primera - Apertura - Round 20

Date: 11 May 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio General Pablo Rojas (Asunción)

Referee: Lopez D. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Cerro Porteño		Guaraní Asuncion

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.1	3.25	Watch
	2.1	3.15	3.35	Watch
	2.19	3.21	3.61
	2.17	3.13	3.53	Watch
	2.1	3	3.4
	2.13	3.18	3.51	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.12 ↑ (1.92)	3.13 ↓ (3.31)	3.44 ↓ (4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Cerro Porteño
43.6%

Draw
29.6%

Guaraní Asuncion
26.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.6%

28.1%

23.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

28%

23.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerro Porteño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Guaraní Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro Porteño than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cerro Porteño, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guaraní Asuncion than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	22.2%	11.1%

Cerro Porteño - Guaraní Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Cerro Porteño will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Guaraní will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cerro Porteño: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Fernandez R. (G) 2. Dominguez F. 23. Velazquez G. (C) 22. Perez M. 35. Chaparro M. 5. Morel J. 26. Piris R. 32. Bobadilla C. 11. Iturbe J. 19. Vegetti P. 27. Torres J.	1. Servio G. (C) 14. Ramos M. 2. Segovia I. 4. Zaracho S. 15. Servin T. 36. Martinez L. 26. Fernandez D. 29. Llano J. 5. Tanda P. 38. Coronel P. 17. Torales R.
Substitutes
38. Cristaldo A. 28. Franco C. 40. Klimowicz M. 1. Martin A. (G) 18. Melgarejo R. 36. Noguera F. 24. Paez E. 8. Paredes C. 16. Peralta F. 14. Quintana Rodriguez L. A. 37. Sanchez V. 20. Viera W.	31. Arzamendia M. (G) 35. Centurion J. 33. Ferreira Gonzalez K. 25. Gomez G. 27. Gomez M. 11. Jhon Sanchez 8. Lopez M. 7. Manzur A. 16. Paredes L. 20. Quinonez R. 9. Ramirez I. 19. Ramirez Perdesen C. G.
Coaches
Holan A.	Romagnoli L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Iturbe J. ↓, Klimowicz M. ↑,
57', Martinez L. 🟨,
60', Morel J. ↓, Noguera F. ↑,
66', Llano J. ↓, Lopez M. ↑,
66', Velazquez G. 🟨,
74', Torres J. ↓, Cristaldo A. ↑,
76', Coronel P. 🟨,
76', Coronel P. ↓, Ramirez I. ↑,
85', Torales R. ↓, Gomez G. ↑,
85', Tanda P. ↓, Manzur A. ↑,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 3 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerro Porteño won 4.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Cerro Porteño may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Cerro Porteño is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cerro Porteño won 10 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 30:17. (average 1.5:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Cerro Porteño won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:5. (average 1.3:0.6).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Guarani	13	5	6	2	14:10	4	21
8	Cerro Porteno	13	5	2	6	15:14	1	17

Last Results with these Odds

Cerro Porteño - the odds 1.92 are the expected chance of winning is 48.6%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Guaraní Asuncion - the odds 4 are the expected chance of winning is 23.27%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cerro Porteño
Copa Libertadores
07.05.26	Junior Barranquilla - Cerro Porteño	0:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
03.05.26	Deportivo Recoleta - Cerro Porteño	2:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
29.04.26	Cerro Porteño - Palmeiras	1:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
24.04.26	Cerro Porteño - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	Olimpia Asuncion Awarded ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WLTT?
- Guaraní Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
03.05.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	0:1 ✺
26.04.26	2 de Mayo - Guaraní Asuncion	2:2 ✺
18.04.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	2:1 ✺
10.04.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Guaraní Asuncion	1:0 ✺
05.04.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
07.03.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	0:2
02.11.25	Cerro Porteño - Guaraní Asuncion	1:0
16.08.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	3:4
10.05.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	0:2
02.03.25	Cerro Porteño - Guaraní Asuncion	0:1
16.11.24	Cerro Porteño - Guaraní Asuncion	1:2
31.08.24	Guaraní Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	1:0

Upcoming Matches