Match Info

Copa de Primera - Clausura - Round 15

Date: 17 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Rogelio Livieres (Asunción) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Benitez J. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	17:00	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	17:00	Tigo Sports
Usa	16:00	Fanatiz


	Guaraní Asuncion		Nacional Asuncion

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.00	2.38	Watch
	2.65	3.00	2.40
	2.55	3.05	2.70	Watch
	3.00	3.23	2.54
	2.62	3.15	2.74	Watch
	2.85	3.15	2.50
	2.88	3.14	2.49	Watch
	2.70	3.05	2.50
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.75 ↑ (2.65)	3.1 (3.1)	2.53 ↓ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Guaraní Asuncion
33.6%

Draw
29.9%

Nacional Asuncion
36.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

34.6%

29.5%

35.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.3%

28.9%

35.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guaraní Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Nacional Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guaraní Asuncion than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Asuncion than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Guaraní Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Martinez M. (G) 4. Mendez A. 2. Segovia I. 15. Servin T. 33. Allende L. 36. Martinez L. (C) 34. Maldonado M. 10. Anasco M. 25. Gomez G. 17. Cespedes V. 9. Recalde J.	30. Rojas S. (G) 23. Espinola C. 3. Coronel M. 5. Benitez G. 29. Vargas S. 15. Cardozo Lucena A. 33. Gaona Lugo O. (C) 8. Jara F. 13. Meza L. 10. Colman Escobar D. J. 9. Benitez H. A.
Substitutes
21. Arrua C. 16. Benitez J. 38. Coronel P. 12. Dionisi G. (G) 26. Fernandez D. 40. Fernandez F. 11. Garcia J. 19. Ibarra A. 23. Jacquet M. 29. Llano J. 14. Rodriguez Echeverria R. O. 18. Romero T.	11. Almeida M. 20. Arguello R. 7. Bailone I. 19. Gonzales L. 36. Pelozo F. 32. Pumpido F. 25. Ramirez Antunez R. C. 28. Samudio A. 17. Santacruz Rodas J. F. 18. Valdez I. 38. Vega T. 35. Villar E. (G)
Coaches
Arce F.	Bernay V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Cardozo Lucena A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Gaona Lugo O. ↓, Valdez I. ↑,
46', Cardozo Lucena A. ↓, Bailone I. ↑,
57', Mendez A. 🟨,
67', Anasco M. ↓, Fernandez F. ↑,
73', Colman Escobar D. J. ↓, Ramirez Antunez R. C. ↑,
75', 0 - 1, Valdez I. ⚽, Benitez H. A. (A),
77', Maldonado M. ↓, Romero T. ↑,
77', Cespedes V. ↓, Fernandez D. ↑,
77', Recalde J. ↓, Garcia J. ↑,
85', Gomez G. ↓, Arrua C. ↑,
89', Jara F. ↓, Santacruz Rodas J. F. ↑,
90', Ramirez Antunez R. C. 🟨,
90+3', 0 - 2, Bailone I. ⚽, Valdez I. (A),
90+4', Benitez H. A. ↓, Vega T. ↑,

Preview

Two table neighbours face each other in what promises to be a tight contest (ranked 6th and 4th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guaraní won 1.

Guaraní has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Performances by Nacional have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Guaraní has recorded 6 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 23:27 (averaging 1.2:1.4 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Guaraní against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, with 13:15 goals (averaging 1.3:1.5 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Nacional Asuncion	16	8	5	3	23:9	14	29
6	Guarani	16	6	7	3	18:14	4	25

Last Results with these Odds

Guaraní Asuncion - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 34.55%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Nacional Asuncion - the odds 2.55 are the expected chance of winning is 35.91%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guaraní Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
11.10.26	Libertad Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	2:2 ✺
03.10.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Sportivo San Lorenzo	1:1 ✺
25.09.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Guaraní Asuncion	0:1 ✺
18.09.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Guaraní Asuncion	0:1 ✺
12.09.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 TTWWT
- Nacional Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
12.10.26	Nacional Asuncion - Deportivo Recoleta	1:0 ✺
06.10.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Copa Paraguay
30.09.26	Independiente Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	3:2 penalties ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
25.09.26	Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
18.09.26	Nacional Asuncion - 2 de Mayo	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
09.08.26	Nacional Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	0:0
03.05.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	0:1
01.03.26	Nacional Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	1:1
Copa Paraguay
14.11.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	0:4
Paraguayan Primera Division
21.09.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	2:0
12.07.25	Nacional Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	1:0
26.04.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	2:1

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