Match Info

Copa de Primera - Apertura - Round 19

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Rogelio Livieres (Asunción)

Referee: Ojeda D. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Guaraní Asuncion		Nacional Asuncion

	1	X	2
	2.35	3	2.9	Watch
	2.4	2.95	2.7
	2.42	3	2.88	Watch
	2.5	3.16	2.99
	2.43	3.15	2.92	Watch
	2.45	2.9	2.9
	2.47	3.06	2.96	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↓ (2.68)	3.03 ↓ (3.16)	2.89 ↑ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Guaraní Asuncion
37.8%

Draw
30.4%

Nacional Asuncion
31.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.9%

29.6%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.6%

29%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Guaraní Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Nacional Asuncion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guaraní Asuncion than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nacional Asuncion than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	80%	20%

Guaraní Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Servio G. (C) 37. Perez D. 3. Barbotte A. 4. Zaracho S. 15. Servin T. 8. Lopez M. 36. Martinez L. 26. Fernandez D. 5. Tanda P. 38. Coronel P. 9. Ramirez I.	30. Rojas S. (G) 21. Feliu J. 26. Coronel M. 3. Canete Torres A. D. 29. Vargas S. 8. Jara F. 6. Torales S. 33. Gaona Lugo O. 27. Prieto R. 18. Valdez I. 24. Santa C. R. (C)
Substitutes
31. Arzamendia M. (G) 35. Centurion J. 33. Ferreira Gonzalez K. 25. Gomez G. 11. Jhon Sanchez 29. Llano J. 34. Maldonado M. 7. Manzur A. 20. Quinonez R. 19. Ramirez Perdesen C. G. 14. Ramos M. 17. Torales R.	10. Arrua C. 7. Bailone I. 5. Benitez G. 9. Benitez H. A. 15. Caceres L. 22. Colman Escobar D. J. 23. Espinola C. 4. Gutierrez T. 40. Leguizamon C. 1. Ortiz G. (G) 28. Samudio A. 17. Santacruz J.
Coaches
Romagnoli L.	Bernay V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Vargas S. ↓, Benitez G. ↑,
61', Lopez M. ↓, Llano J. ↑,
61', Ramirez I. ↓, Torales R. ↑,
67', Prieto R. ↓, Benitez H. A. ↑,
67', Santa C. R. ↓, Bailone I. ↑,
71', Coronel P. ↓, Manzur A. ↑,
78', Gaona Lugo O. ↓, Samudio A. ↑,
82', 0 - 1, Benitez H. A. ⚽,
84', Servin T. ↓, Centurion J. ↑,
84', Fernandez D. ↓, Ferreira Gonzalez K. ↑,
89', Torales S. ↓, Gutierrez T. ↑,
90+3', Tanda P. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 7 and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guaraní won 2.

Guaraní is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Nacional has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Guaraní may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Guaraní won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 25:27. (average 1.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Guaraní won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:15. (average 1.4:1.5).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Nacional Asuncion	13	6	5	2	20:8	12	23
6	Guarani	13	5	6	2	14:10	4	21

Last Results with these Odds

Guaraní Asuncion - the odds 2.68 are the expected chance of winning is 34.88%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Nacional Asuncion - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 35.54%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Guaraní Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
26.04.26	2 de Mayo - Guaraní Asuncion	2:2 ✺
18.04.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	2:1 ✺
10.04.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Guaraní Asuncion	1:0 ✺
05.04.26	Guaraní Asuncion - Libertad Asuncion	1:0 ✺
01.04.26	Rubio Ñu - Guaraní Asuncion	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 TWLWW
- Nacional Asuncion
Paraguayan Primera Division
24.04.26	Nacional Asuncion - Deportivo Recoleta	2:1 ✺
20.04.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Nacional Asuncion	1:1 ✺
11.04.26	Nacional Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	0:0 ✺
04.04.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	3:0 ✺
31.03.26	2 de Mayo - Nacional Asuncion	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
01.03.26	Nacional Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	1:1
Copa Paraguay
14.11.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	0:4
Paraguayan Primera Division
21.09.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	2:0
12.07.25	Nacional Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	1:0
26.04.25	Guaraní Asuncion - Nacional Asuncion	2:1
15.02.25	Nacional Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	1:2
29.11.24	Nacional Asuncion - Guaraní Asuncion	0:0

Upcoming Matches