Match Info

Copa de Primera - Apertura - Round 18

Date: 24 April 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio General Pablo Rojas (Asunción)

Referee: Mendez J. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Usa	Fanatiz


	Cerro Porteño		Sportivo Ameliano

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.2	3.7	Watch
	1.95	3.15	3.8
	1.96	3.2	4.62
	2.01	3.26	3.85	Watch
	1.95	3	4
	1.91	3.18	4.33	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.94 ↑ (1.71)	3.17 ↓ (3.55)	4.05 ↓ (4.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerro Porteño
47.8%

Draw
29.3%

Sportivo Ameliano
22.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.5%

26.3%

19.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.1%

28.1%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cerro Porteño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cerro Porteño's form might have worsened.

Sportivo Ameliano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro Porteño than the current prediction. (+10.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cerro Porteño, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sportivo Ameliano than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Cerro Porteño - Sportivo Ameliano Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Cerro Porteño will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Martin A. (G) 23. Velazquez G. (C) 22. Perez M. 14. Quintana Rodriguez L. A. 35. Chaparro M. 10. Dominguez C. 5. Morel J. 20. Viera W. 40. Klimowicz M. 19. Vegetti P. 11. Iturbe J.	23. Martinez M. (G) 21. Franco F. 26. Gonzalez J. (C) 22. Falabella A. 19. Paredes A. 6. Benitez J. 10. Vera E. 20. Larralde V. 30. Cabral R. 11. Aranda S. 28. Sanguina J.
Substitutes
9. Amarilla L. 13. Benitez A. G. 32. Bobadilla C. 25. Fernandez R. (G) 28. Franco C. 33. Gomez R. 18. Melgarejo R. 24. Paez E. 8. Paredes C. 16. Peralta F. 39. Servin L. J. 27. Torres J.	24. Ayala L. 3. Baez F. 5. Benitez H. 34. Benitez M. 25. Bruno L. 40. Contrera A. 27. Jacquet M. 36. Leon M. 9. Ocampos C. 38. Portillo F. 15. Rodriguez W. 35. Sanchez A. (G)
Coaches
Holan A.	Nanni R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Klimowicz M. ⚽,
31', Iturbe J. 🟨,
36', Holan A. 🟨,
41', Aranda S. 🟨,
42', Dominguez C. ↓, Torres J. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Iturbe J. ↓, Amarilla L. ↑,
57', 1 - 1, Cabral R. ⚽, Sanguina J. (A),
58', Aranda S. ↓, Ayala L. ↑,
64', Klimowicz M. ↓, Franco C. ↑,
74', Sanguina J. ↓, Bruno L. ↑,
76', Quintana Rodriguez L. A. ↓, Gomez R. ↑,
76', Viera W. ↓, Peralta F. ↑,
83', Larralde V. ↓, Leon M. ↑,
83', Cabral R. ↓, Contrera A. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 2 and 3).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerro Porteño won 4.

In recent matches, Cerro Porteño has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Sportivo Ameliano is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Cerro Porteño may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Cerro Porteño is a strong favorite.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Cerro Porteño won 15 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 31:11. (average 1.7:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Cerro Porteño won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 18:9. (average 2:1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Ameliano	13	4	6	3	15:15	0	18
8	Cerro Porteno	13	5	2	6	15:14	1	17

Last Results with these Odds

Cerro Porteño - the odds 1.71 are the expected chance of winning is 54.54%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cerro Porteño
Paraguayan Primera Division
19.04.26	Olimpia Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	Olimpia Asuncion Awarded ✺
Copa Libertadores
14.04.26	Cerro Porteño - Junior Barranquilla	1:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
11.04.26	Nacional Asuncion - Cerro Porteño	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.04.26	Sporting Cristal - Cerro Porteño	1:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
04.04.26	Cerro Porteño - 2 de Mayo	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 ?WTLW
- Sportivo Ameliano
Paraguayan Primera Division
20.04.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Nacional Asuncion	1:1 ✺
10.04.26	2 de Mayo - Sportivo Ameliano	1:2 ✺
05.04.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Sportivo Luqueño	2:2 ✺
31.03.26	Sportivo San Lorenzo - Sportivo Ameliano	1:2 ✺
27.03.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Libertad Asuncion	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 TWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
25.02.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Cerro Porteño	0:1
20.09.25	Cerro Porteño - Sportivo Ameliano	2:0
12.07.25	Sportivo Ameliano - Cerro Porteño	0:1
21.05.25	Sportivo Ameliano - Cerro Porteño	0:0
16.03.25	Cerro Porteño - Sportivo Ameliano	2:0
21.09.24	Sportivo Ameliano - Cerro Porteño	0:1
01.08.24	Cerro Porteño - Sportivo Ameliano	1:0

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