Match Info

Copa de Primera - Clausura - Round 15

Date: 18 October 2026, Sunday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio General Pablo Rojas (Asunción) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Benitez D. (Par)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	17:00	DirecTV Sports
Paraguay	17:00	Tigo Sports
Usa	16:00	Fanatiz


	Cerro Porteño		Sportivo Ameliano

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.5	4.5
	1.60	3.60	4.60
	1.6	3.65	4.9	Watch
	1.71	3.89	5
	1.7	3.85	4.65	Watch
	1.64	3.8	4.85
	1.63	3.87	5.06	Watch
	1.61	3.7	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.68)	3.73 ↑ (3.7)	4.8 ↓ (5.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cerro Porteño
56.1%

Draw
24.7%

Sportivo Ameliano
19.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

56.1%

25.5%

18.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.8%

24.8%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Cerro Porteño have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

Sportivo Ameliano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro Porteño than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sportivo Ameliano than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Cerro Porteño - Sportivo Ameliano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Martinez A. (G) 2. Dominguez F. 4. Canete Torres A. D. 14. Quintana Rodriguez L. A. (C) 13. Benitez A. G. 5. Morel J. 7. Rodriguez D. 32. Bobadilla C. 34. Chena C. 40. Klimowicz M. 19. Vegetti P.	35. Sanchez A. (G) 13. Peralta R. 26. Gonzalez J. (C) 22. Falabella A. 34. Benitez M. 6. Benitez J. 7. Vera F. 8. Moreira E. 10. Cabral R. 18. Ortiz L. 9. Ocampos C.
Substitutes
31. Aliseda I. 20. Almendra A. E. 21. Araujo S. 28. Franco C. 18. Gamarra A. 30. Gimenez G. 6. Merolla L. 16. Ramirez I. 15. Riveros B. 1. Roffo M. (G) 27. Torres J. 23. Velazquez G.	24. Ayala L. 3. Baez F. 1. Balbuena J. (G) 5. Benitez H. 31. Britez E. 25. Bruno L. 32. Camargo G. M. 40. Contrera A. 21. Franco F. 20. Larralde V. 15. Rodriguez W. 17. Torales R.
Coaches
Costas G.	Nanni R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', Benitez A. G. ↓, Riveros B. ↑,
40', 1 - 0, Morel J. ⚽, Vegetti P. (A),
45+2', Benitez J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Benitez M. ↓, Franco F. ↑,
51', Cabral R. 🟨,
53', 2 - 0, Morel J. (Penalty Awarded),
59', 2 - 1, Ocampos C. (Penalty Awarded),
59', Dominguez F. ↓, Ramirez I. ↑,
65', Benitez J. ↓, Rodriguez W. ↑,
69', Rodriguez D. ↓, Aliseda I. ↑,
69', Klimowicz M. ↓, Araujo S. ↑,
69', Chena C. ↓, Gamarra A. ↑,
70', Ortiz L. ↓, Ayala L. ↑,
70', Cabral R. ↓, Torales R. ↑,
76', Quintana Rodriguez L. A. 🟥,
81', Moreira E. ↓, Camargo G. M. ↑,
85', 2 - 2, Ayala L. ⚽, Ocampos C. (A),
90+5', Falabella A. 🟨,

Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 7th and 8th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerro Porteño won 3.

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Cerro Porteño may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Bookmakers give the edge to Cerro Porteño for this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Cerro Porteño has recorded 15 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 32:13 (averaging 1.6:0.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Cerro Porteño against this opponent, the record stands at 7 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 19:10 goals (averaging 1.9:1 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Cerro Porteno	16	7	3	6	23:17	6	24
8	Ameliano	16	4	7	5	19:21	-2	19

Last Results with these Odds

Cerro Porteño - the odds 1.68 are the expected chance of winning is 56.07%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cerro Porteño
Copa Paraguay
14.10.26	Cerro Porteño - Sportivo San Lorenzo	3:2 penalties ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
10.10.26	Sportivo Luqueño - Cerro Porteño	0:3 ✺
05.10.26	Cerro Porteño - 2 de Mayo	0:2 ✺
Copa Paraguay
30.09.26	Cerro Porteño - Rubio Ñu	2:1 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
26.09.26	Sportivo Trinidense - Cerro Porteño	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWLWL
- Sportivo Ameliano
Paraguayan Primera Division
12.10.26	2 de Mayo - Sportivo Ameliano	1:0 ✺
06.10.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Rubio Ñu	1:2 ✺
25.09.26	Nacional Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
19.09.26	Libertad Asuncion - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1 ✺
11.09.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Sportivo San Lorenzo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 LLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Paraguayan Primera Division
08.08.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Cerro Porteño	1:0
24.04.26	Cerro Porteño - Sportivo Ameliano	1:1
25.02.26	Sportivo Ameliano - Cerro Porteño	0:1
20.09.25	Cerro Porteño - Sportivo Ameliano	2:0
12.07.25	Sportivo Ameliano - Cerro Porteño	0:1
21.05.25	Sportivo Ameliano - Cerro Porteño	0:0
16.03.25	Cerro Porteño - Sportivo Ameliano	2:0

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