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Current Win Probability
Cerro Porteño 39.4%
Draw 29.3%
Libertad Asuncion 31.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
47.1%
28.1%
24.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
49.9%
29.8%
23.4%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cerro Porteño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cerro Porteño's form might have worsened.
Libertad Asuncion has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Libertad Asuncion's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro Porteño than the current prediction. (+10.5%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cerro Porteño, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Libertad Asuncion than the current prediction. (-7.9%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Libertad Asuncion, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
33.3%
33.3%
33.3%
Cerro Porteño - Libertad Asuncion Predictions
Users Predictions:
3 users predict this event. Cerro Porteño will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Libertad will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
25. Fernandez R. (C) 16. Ramirez I. 23. Velazquez G. 14. Quintana Rodriguez L. A. 13. Benitez A. G. 18. Gamarra A. 5. Morel J. 11. Iturbe J. 20. Almendra A. E. 31. Aliseda I. 19. Vegetti P.
12. Morinigo Acosta R. M. (G) 2. Benitez A. 3. Rojas R. 23. Freire N. 4. Gimenez N. 24. Villalba R. 21. Sanabria L. 6. Campuzano A. (C) 11. Vera E. 8. Carrizo F. 9. Aguilar G.
Substitutes
24. Acosta E. 35. Chaparro M. 34. Chena C. 38. Cristaldo A. 28. Franco C. 33. Gonzalez E. 6. Merolla L. 36. Noguera F. 7. Rodriguez D. 1. Roffo M. (G) 39. Servin L. J. 27. Torres J.
13. Bogarin J. 31. Fernandez T. 5. Flores G. 19. Franco I. 14. Fretes A. 33. Martinez C. 27. Molinas A. 32. Nequecaur L. 26. Ramirez I. 29. Rojas V. (G) 30. Vera O. R. 34. Villalba E.
Coaches
Holan A.
Valdez N.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
11', 1 - 0, Aliseda I. ⚽, Almendra A. E. (A),
13', Gamarra A. 🟨,
25', Almendra A. E. ↓, Chena C. ↑,
45+1', 1 - 1, Aguilar G. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Iturbe J. ↓, Merolla L. ↑,
46', Fernandez R. ↓, Roffo M. ↑,
62', Vegetti P. ↓, Torres J. ↑,
69', Vera E. ↓, Fretes A. ↑,
77', Sanabria L. ↓, Ramirez I. ↑,
77', Carrizo F. ↓, Martinez C. ↑,
79', Benitez A. G. ↓, Chaparro M. ↑,
87', Torres J. (Penalty Awarded),
89', Villalba R. ↓, Nequecaur L. ↑,
90+2', Martinez C. 🟨,
Preview
This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 10 and 2).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cerro Porteño won 2.
Cerro Porteño has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Libertad is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).
Libertad may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Cerro Porteño will hold a modest advantage in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Cerro Porteño won 7 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 27:23. (average 1.4:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Cerro Porteño won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:9. (average 1.6:0.9).
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Fernandez R. (C) 
Benitez A. G. 
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