Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 1

Date: 3 April 2024, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Alejandro Villanueva (Lima)

Referee: Matonte Cabrera A. M. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports
Portugal	Sport TV2


	Alianza Lima		Fluminense

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.7	3.3	2
	3.75	3.4	2	Watch
	3.95	3.39	2.08
	3.91	3.39	2.04
	3.6	3.25	1.95	Watch
	3.83	3.4	2.02	Watch
	3.6	3.25	2.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.76 ↓ (5.13)	3.34 ↓ (3.76)	2.02 ↑ (1.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alianza Lima
25%

Draw
28.2%

Fluminense
46.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

18.3%

24.9%

56.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.2%

23.3%

60.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alianza Lima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Alianza Lima's performance.

Fluminense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fluminense might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alianza Lima than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alianza Lima that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (+13.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fluminense could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28%	8%	64%

Alianza Lima - Fluminense Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Alianza Lima will win (votes: 7 - 28%). Fluminense will win (votes: 16 - 64%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Fluminense: 45.2% – 82.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Campos A. (G) 29. Ramos J. 5. Zambrano C. (C) 6. Garces R. 25. Huaman M. 26. Serna K. 27. Cabellos C. 15. Castillo J. 2. Freytes J. 30. Waterman C. 10. Rodriguez S.	1. Fabio (G) 2. Samuel Xavier 29. Thiago Santos 30. Felipe Melo (C) 12. Marcelo 7. Andre 8. Martinelli 21. Arias J. 20. Renato Augusto 77. Marquinhos 18. Lele
Substitutes
4. Amasifuen N. 21. Aranda S. 9. Barcos H. 8. Costa G. 11. D'Arrigo J. 12. De la Cruz A. (G) 18. De Santis J. 20. Fuentes A. 17. Neira C. 32. Saravia F. (G) 31. Vilchez Y. 7. Zanelatto F.	5. Alexsander 25. Antonio Carlos 28. Arthur Wenderrosky 90. Costa D. 80. David Terans 27. Felipe Alves (G) 13. Felipe Andrade 23. Guga 32. Isaac 19. Kaua Elias 45. Lima 17. Lucumi J.
Coaches
Restrepo A.	Fernando Diniz

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', Huaman M. 🟨,
28', Renato Augusto ↓, Lima ↑,
35', 1 - 0, Serna K. ⚽, Waterman C. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Thiago Santos ↓, David Terans ↑,
58', Felipe Melo 🟨,
61', Felipe Melo ↓, Costa D. ↑,
61', Marcelo ↓, Kaua Elias ↑,
68', Serna K. ↓, Zanelatto F. ↑,
72', 1 - 1, Marquinhos ⚽, Costa D. (A),
82', Waterman C. ↓, Barcos H. ↑,
85', Freytes J. 🟨,
90+2', Cabellos C. ↓, Fuentes A. ↑,

Preview

Recent matches Alianza Lima is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Fluminense is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Alianza Lima could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Fluminense is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alianza Lima
Peruvian Liga 1
28.03.24	Alianza Lima - Los Chankas	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
20.03.24	Alianza Lima - Blooming	1:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
13.03.24	Cienciano - Alianza Lima	2:1 ✺
09.03.24	Alianza Lima - Sporting Cristal	1:2 ✺
01.03.24	ADT Tarma - Alianza Lima	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 WWLLL
- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
16.03.24	Flamengo - Fluminense	0:0 ✺
09.03.24	Fluminense - Flamengo	0:2 ✺
03.03.24	Fluminense - Botafogo RJ	2:4 ✺
Recopa Sudamericana
29.02.24	Fluminense - LDU Quito	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
25.02.24	Flamengo - Fluminense	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 TLLWL

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