Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 35

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube (Ceuta)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Ceuta		Mérida AD

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.6	4.33
	1.68	3.5	4.2
	1.71	3.7	4.4
	1.74	3.65	4.84
	1.68	3.63	4.62	Watch
	1.72	3.75	4.52
	1.71	3.7	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.7 ↓ (1.75)	3.65 ↑ (3.39)	4.47 ↓ (4.49)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceuta
54.2%

Draw
25.2%

Mérida AD
20.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.4%

27.1%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.6%

25.5%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceuta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Mérida AD has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mérida AD than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Ceuta - Mérida AD Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Mérida AD (1.95) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mérida AD (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lopez P. (G) 4. Caparros A. 6. Hernandez C. 25. Cantero Y. 16. Redruello Nimo C. 20. Escudero A. 8. Zalazar K. 3. Youness 19. Jamelli 22. Kone K. 9. Rodri	1. Juanpa (G) 19. Pipe 4. Bonaque M. 18. Falcon E. 22. Athuman I. 7. Alvaro J. 10. Juanjo 17. Ganet P. 21. Beneit R. 11. Doncel C. 20. Nabian H.
Substitutes
11. Aquino D. 5. Bellotti M. 15. Guzman J. 33. Heredia J. P. A. 12. Herranz Corral V. 14. Lopez B. 21. Lopez J. 10. Rodriguez C. 32. Rodriguez D. 13. Vallejo G. (G)	14. Beltran L. 23. Busi 24. Carvalho M. 8. Eslava J. 26. Macia I. (G) 6. Miki 5. Pareja Alvarez L. 15. Prevedini M. 16. Sanchez E. 13. Vicente D. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
34', Falcon E. 🟨,
36', 1 - 0, Kone K. ⚽,
41', Rodri 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Rodri ↓, Aquino D. ↑,
47', Nabian H. 🟨,
56', Caparros A. 🟨,
60', Redruello Nimo C. 🟨,
63', Falcon E. ↓, Beltran L. ↑,
63', Athuman I. ↓, Eslava J. ↑,
63', Nabian H. ↓, Pareja Alvarez L. ↑,
67', Escudero A. ↓, Bellotti M. ↑,
68', Beneit R. 🟨,
78', Eslava J. 🟨,
78', Beneit R. ↓, Busi ↑,
82', Bonaque M. ↓, Prevedini M. ↑,
82', Jamelli ↓, Herranz Corral V. ↑,
90+3', Zalazar K. ↓, Rodriguez C. ↑,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Promotion Play Offs).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ceuta won 1.

Ceuta is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Mérida AD is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Ceuta is considered a favorite.

We predict that Ceuta will win today's game, with odds of 1.71.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Ceuta won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 6:9. (average 0.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Ceuta won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Ceuta
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
27.04.25	Real Madrid Castilla - Ceuta	0:1 ✺
19.04.25	Ceuta - Marbella	3:1 ✺
12.04.25	Real Murcia - Ceuta	1:1 ✺
06.04.25	Ceuta - Alcoyano	1:0 ✺
28.03.25	Intercity - Ceuta	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16 WWTWW
- Mérida AD
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
27.04.25	Mérida AD - Antequera	3:0 ✺
20.04.25	Fuenlabrada - Mérida AD	1:1 ✺
13.04.25	Hércules - Mérida AD	0:0 ✺
06.04.25	Mérida AD - Sevilla B	2:1 ✺
30.03.25	Alcoyano - Mérida AD	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
10.11.24	Mérida AD - Ceuta	1:1
25.05.24	Mérida AD - Ceuta	3:2
17.12.23	Ceuta - Mérida AD	1:1
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
02.04.23	Ceuta - Mérida AD	1:0
20.11.22	Mérida AD - Ceuta	2:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
30.01.22	Ceuta - Mérida AD	0:1
12.09.21	Mérida AD - Ceuta	1:1

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