Match Info

Serie B - Round 6

Date: 24 April 2025, Thursday

Location: Estadio Ciudad de Pelileo (Pelileo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping
Peru	Zapping Sports


	Chacaritas		Guayaquil City

	1	X	2
				Watch
	4.5	3.4	1.71
	4.84	3.3	1.78
	4.97	3.58	1.71	Watch
	4.07	3.76	1.76	Watch
	4.5	3.4	1.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.58 ↑ (2.45)	3.49 ↑ (3.4)	1.73 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chacaritas
20.2%

Draw
26.5%

Guayaquil City
53.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37%

26.7%

36.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.3%

26.9%

36%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chacaritas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Chacaritas's form might have worsened.

Guayaquil City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Guayaquil City's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chacaritas than the current prediction. (+17.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chacaritas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guayaquil City than the current prediction. (-17.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Guayaquil City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	37.5%	62.5%

Chacaritas - Guayaquil City Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Guayaquil City will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guayaquil City: 29% – 96%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Guayaquil City (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Guayaquil City (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 12 in the zone Serie B (Relegation Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion Group: )).

Chacaritas is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Guayaquil City is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Chacaritas could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Guayaquil City will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Chacaritas won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2:9 (average 0.5:2.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Chacaritas won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:1 (average 1:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chacaritas FC
Ecuadorian Serie B
15.04.25	Independiente Juniors - Chacaritas	3:1 ✺
09.04.25	Chacaritas - San Antonio	0:0 ✺
03.04.25	Vargas Torres - Chacaritas	0:0 ✺
27.03.25	Chacaritas - Imbabura	1:1 ✺
19.03.25	Gualaceo - Chacaritas	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LTTTL
- Guayaquil City FC
Ecuadorian Serie B
17.04.25	Guayaquil City - Atlético Vinotinto	3:2 ✺
10.04.25	Guayaquil City - 9 de Octubre	0:1 ✺
02.04.25	Independiente Juniors - Guayaquil City	1:1 ✺
26.03.25	Guayaquil City - San Antonio	4:1 ✺
20.03.25	Vargas Torres - Guayaquil City	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WLTWL

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
09.10.24	Chacaritas - Guayaquil City	0:0
22.08.24	Guayaquil City - Chacaritas	3:0
02.07.24	Guayaquil City - Chacaritas	5:0
14.03.24	Chacaritas - Guayaquil City	2:1

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