Match Info

Serie B - Promotion Group - Round 5

Date: 26 September 2025, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping


	Independiente Juniors		Guayaquil City

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.47	3.4	2.92
	2.34	3.22	2.97	Watch
	2.38	3.13	2.71	Watch
	2.53	2.71	2.89
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 (2.43)	3.12 ↑ (2.92)	2.87 ↓ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Juniors
38.1%

Draw
29.7%

Guayaquil City
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

31.2%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

31.8%

30.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Juniors has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Guayaquil City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente Juniors than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Guayaquil City than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Independiente Juniors - Guayaquil City Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 2)
60', 🟥,
79', 0 - 1, ⚽,
90+4', 0 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Independiente Jr won 0.

Independiente Jr has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Guayaquil City is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Guayaquil City may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Independiente Jr won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 0.7:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Independiente Jr won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1.3:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Juniors
Ecuadorian Serie B
16.09.25	Gualaceo - Independiente Juniors	1:0 ✺
09.09.25	Independiente Juniors - 9 de Octubre	2:1 ✺
03.09.25	Independiente Juniors - Leones del Norte	1:1 ✺
27.08.25	San Antonio - Independiente Juniors	1:4 ✺
17.08.25	Independiente Juniors - San Antonio	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 LWTWT
- Guayaquil City FC
Ecuadorian Serie B
21.09.25	9 de Octubre - Guayaquil City	0:2 ✺
11.09.25	Guayaquil City - San Antonio	1:0 ✺
04.09.25	Gualaceo - Guayaquil City	2:0 ✺
27.08.25	Guayaquil City - Leones del Norte	2:1 ✺
16.08.25	Guayaquil City - Vargas Torres	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
12.06.25	Guayaquil City - Independiente Juniors	1:0
02.04.25	Independiente Juniors - Guayaquil City	1:1
03.10.24	Guayaquil City - Independiente Juniors	0:0
17.08.24	Independiente Juniors - Guayaquil City	2:3
05.06.24	Guayaquil City - Independiente Juniors	0:0
09.04.24	Independiente Juniors - Guayaquil City	1:0

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