Match Info

Super League - Round 12

Date: 11 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Development Area Stadium (Changchun)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	Migu, ZhiBo8


	Changchun Yatai		Henan Songshan Longmen

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.75	1.8	Watch
	3.1	3.3	2.1
	3.8	3.7	1.86	Watch
	4.08	3.87	1.88
	4	3.69	1.84
	3.3	3.2	2.1
	3.99	3.74	1.89	Watch
	3.8	3.7	1.86
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.78 ↑ (3.05)	3.62 ↑ (3.27)	1.92 ↓ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Changchun Yatai
24.9%

Draw
26%

Henan Songshan Longmen
49.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.8%

28.7%

40.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.7%

27%

38.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Changchun Yatai has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Changchun Yatai's form might have worsened.

Henan Songshan Longmen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Henan Songshan Longmen's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Changchun Yatai than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Changchun Yatai, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Henan Songshan Longmen than the current prediction. (-11%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Henan Songshan Longmen, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
28.6%	0%	71.4%

Changchun Yatai - Henan Songshan Longmen Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Changchun Yatai will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Henan Jianye will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Changchun Yatai (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Changchun Yatai (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Wu Yake (G) 2. Abdugheni Abduhamit 31. Sunzu S. 4. Rosic L. 21. Piao Taoyu 22. Wang Yu 17. He Yiran 10. Omoijuanfo O. 29. Tan Long 8. Yao Xuchen 9. Beric R.	18. Wang Guoming (G) 22. Huang Ruifeng 36. Iago Maidana 23. Lucas Maia 2. Liu Yixin 6. Wang Shangyuan 20. He Chao 7. Zhong Yihao 10. Huang Zichang 40. Bruno Nazario 11. Acheampong F.
Substitutes
18. JIng Boxi 5. Li Shenyuan 33. Sun Guoliang 30. Sun Qinhan 11. Tian Yuda 16. Tudi Dilyimit 3. Wang Yaopeng 28. Wang Zhifeng (G) 24. Yan Zhiyu 6. Zhang Huachen 37. Zhao Yingjie 7. Zhou Junchen	21. Chen Keqiang 9. Felippe Cardoso 5. Liu Jiahui 30. Liu Xinyu 39. Li Xingxian 27. Niu Ziyi 33. Shi Chenglong (G) 4. Shinar Yeljan 16. Yang Kuo 3. Yuande Z. 29. Zheng Dalun
Coaches
Soares R.	Ramos D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', He Chao 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
64', He Chao ↓, Li Xingxian ↑,
64', Huang Zichang ↓, Felippe Cardoso ↑,
64', Wang Yu ↓, Zhao Yingjie ↑,
69', Zhao Yingjie 🟨,
73', Omoijuanfo O. ↓, Tian Yuda ↑,
73', Yao Xuchen ↓, Li Shenyuan ↑,
76', Huang Ruifeng ↓, Shinar Yeljan ↑,
76', 0 - 1, Zhong Yihao ⚽, Iago Maidana (A),
79', Liu Yixin 🟨,
82', Bruno Nazario (Pen),
84', Piao Taoyu ↓, Zhang Huachen ↑,
85', Abdugheni Abduhamit ↓, Tudi Dilyimit ↑,
90', Zhong Yihao ↓, Yuande Z. ↑,
90', Acheampong F. ↓, Chen Keqiang ↑,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Jia League and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Changchun Yatai won 1.

Changchun Yatai is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Henan Jianye is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Henan Jianye is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Changchun Yatai: Cyprien W. (Inactive) Xuan Z. (Inactive)

There will not play in Henan Jianye: Felippe Cardoso (Inactive)

There are questionable in Henan Jianye: Li Xingxian (Injury) Liu Bin (Injury)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Changchun Yatai won 7 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 21:14. (average 1.2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Changchun Yatai won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:3. (average 1.3:0.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Changchun Yatai
Chinese Super League
05.05.25	Qingdao Hainiu - Changchun Yatai	3:0 ✺
01.05.25	Zhejiang Professional - Changchun Yatai	4:2 ✺
26.04.25	Changchun Yatai - Chengdu Rongcheng	1:2 ✺
20.04.25	Changchun Yatai - Yunnan Yukun	0:0 ✺
15.04.25	Shenzhen Peng City - Changchun Yatai	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LLLTL
- Henan Songshan Longmen
Chinese Super League
05.05.25	Henan Songshan Longmen - Tianjin Jinmen Tiger	3:4 ✺
01.05.25	Henan Songshan Longmen - Wuhan Three Towns	1:2 ✺
25.04.25	Beijing Guoan - Henan Songshan Longmen	1:0 ✺
20.04.25	Henan Songshan Longmen - Qingdao Hainiu	3:1 ✺
16.04.25	Dalian Young Boy - Henan Songshan Longmen	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Chinese Super League
27.10.24	Henan Songshan Longmen - Changchun Yatai	0:0
26.05.24	Changchun Yatai - Henan Songshan Longmen	0:0
29.10.23	Henan Songshan Longmen - Changchun Yatai	1:1
03.07.23	Changchun Yatai - Henan Songshan Longmen	3:1
11.07.22	Henan Songshan Longmen - Changchun Yatai	6:2
20.06.22	Changchun Yatai - Henan Songshan Longmen	0:0
02.09.18	Henan Songshan Longmen - Changchun Yatai	1:1

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