Match Info

Super League - Round 11

Date: 5 May 2025, Monday

Location: Qingdao Youth Football Stadium (Qingdao)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	Migu, ZhiBo8


	Qingdao Hainiu		Changchun Yatai

	1	X	2
	1.83	3.8	4.1	Watch
	1.82	3.5	3.9
	2.02	3.5	3.45	Watch
	2	3.64	3.78
	1.95	3.57	3.66	Watch
	2.4	3.3	2.75
	1.97	3.7	3.7	Watch
	1.98	3.5	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.5)	3.56 ↑ (3.41)	3.61 ↑ (2.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Qingdao Hainiu
47.3%

Draw
26.5%

Changchun Yatai
26.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.5%

27.5%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

27.1%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Qingdao Hainiu has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Qingdao Hainiu's performance.

Changchun Yatai has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Changchun Yatai might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Qingdao Hainiu than the current prediction. (-9.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Qingdao Hainiu that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Changchun Yatai than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Changchun Yatai could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
92.9%	0%	7.1%

Qingdao Hainiu - Changchun Yatai Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Qingdao Hainiu will win (votes: 13 - 92.9%). Changchun Yatai will win (votes: 1 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Qingdao Hainiu: 79.4% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Qingdao Hainiu (1.69) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Qingdao Hainiu will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Qingdao Hainiu (votes: 7 - 87.5%). Changchun Yatai (votes: 1 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Mu Pengfei (C) 19. Song Wenjie 26. Radmanovac N. 4. Jin Yangyang 3. Liu Junshuai 23. Song Long 25. Jia Feifan 6. Filipe Augusto 7. Saric E. 11. Wellington Silva 10. Feng Boyuan	23. Wu Yake (G) 15. Xu Haofeng 31. Sunzu S. 4. Rosic L. 2. Abdugheni Abduhamit 10. Omoijuanfo O. 21. Piao Taoyu 22. Wang Yu 8. Yao Xuchen 9. Beric R. 29. Tan Long (C)
Substitutes
12. Chen Chunxin 30. Che Shiwei 38. Huang Yinghao 24. Hu Jinghang 34. Jin Yonghao 8. Lin Chuangyi 1. Liu Jun (G) 31. Luo Senwen 5. Sha Yibo 18. Wang Zihao 2. Xiao Kun 27. Zheng Long	44. Fan Chao 17. He Yiran 5. Li Shenyuan 33. Sun Guoliang 30. Sun Qinhan 11. Tian Yuda 16. Tudi Dilyimit 3. Wang Yaopeng 28. Wang Zhifeng (G) 19. Xu Yue 37. Zhao Yingjie 7. Zhou Junchen
Coaches
Li Xiaopeng	Xie Hui

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Xu Haofeng 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Wang Yu ↓, Wang Yaopeng ↑,
46', Jia Feifan ↓, Jin Yonghao ↑,
53', 1 - 0, Wellington Silva ⚽,
58', Yao Xuchen ↓, Zhao Yingjie ↑,
60', 2 - 0, Wellington Silva ⚽, Feng Boyuan (A),
70', Omoijuanfo O. ↓, Tian Yuda ↑,
78', 3 - 0, Feng Boyuan ⚽,
85', Wellington Silva ↓, Huang Yinghao ↑,
86', Abdugheni Abduhamit ↓, He Yiran ↑,
90+1', Saric E. ↓, Lin Chuangyi ↑,

Preview

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Jia League and 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Jia League).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Qingdao Hainiu won 2.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Changchun Yatai: Cyprien W. (Inactive) Li Shenyuan (Inactive)

There are questionable in Qingdao Hainiu: Ormeno S. (Inactive)

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Qingdao Hainiu won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:11. (average 0.7:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Qingdao Hainiu won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Qingdao Hainiu
Chinese Super League
01.05.25	Shandong Taishan - Qingdao Hainiu	1:1 ✺
27.04.25	Qingdao Hainiu - Meizhou Hakka	1:1 ✺
20.04.25	Henan Songshan Longmen - Qingdao Hainiu	3:1 ✺
16.04.25	Shanghai Shenhua - Qingdao Hainiu	3:2 ✺
12.04.25	Qingdao Hainiu - Chengdu Rongcheng	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 TTLLL
- Changchun Yatai
Chinese Super League
01.05.25	Zhejiang Professional - Changchun Yatai	4:2 ✺
26.04.25	Changchun Yatai - Chengdu Rongcheng	1:2 ✺
20.04.25	Changchun Yatai - Yunnan Yukun	0:0 ✺
15.04.25	Shenzhen Peng City - Changchun Yatai	3:1 ✺
11.04.25	Meizhou Hakka - Changchun Yatai	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Chinese Super League
30.06.24	Changchun Yatai - Qingdao Hainiu	5:0
08.03.24	Qingdao Hainiu - Changchun Yatai	0:1
26.08.23	Qingdao Hainiu - Changchun Yatai	1:0
Chinese FA Cup
25.07.23	Qingdao Hainiu - Changchun Yatai	1:0
Chinese Super League
23.05.23	Changchun Yatai - Qingdao Hainiu	1:0
Chinese Jia League
22.09.19	Changchun Yatai - Qingdao Hainiu	1:1
26.05.19	Qingdao Hainiu - Changchun Yatai	2:3

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