Match Info

BRAZIL: Serie B - Round 6

Date: 21 May 2024, Tuesday

Location: Arena Condá (Chapecó)

Referee: Vasconcelos B. (Bra)


	Chapecoense		Ponte Preta

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.1	3.75	Watch
	2.15	2.9	3.5
	2.3	2.95	3.4
	2.19	3.08	3.88
	2.19	3.08	3.88
	2.15	2.9	3.7
	2.22	2.81	3.87	Watch
	2.14	3	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (2.03)	2.98 ↓ (3.08)	3.7 ↓ (3.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chapecoense
43%

Draw
31.6%

Ponte Preta
25.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.7%

30.2%

24%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.2%

29.9%

23.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chapecoense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)

Ponte Preta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ponte Preta than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	55.6%	0%

Chapecoense - Ponte Preta Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Chapecoense will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 55.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Matheus Cavichioli (G) 57. JP Galvao 33. Bruno Leonardo 3. Eduardo Doma 6. Mancha 30. Thomas Bedinelli 35. Foguinho (C) 99. Rafael Carvalheira 10. Giovanni Augusto 7. Marcinho 89. Mario Sergio	1. Pedro Rocha (G) 2. Igor Inocencio 23. Haquin L. 6. Sergio Raphael 33. Risso G. 18. Emerson Santos 10. Elvis (C) 5. Dudu Vieira 25. Lucas Buchecha 11. Iago Dias 35. Gabriel Novaes
Substitutes
5. Auremir 1. Gabriel Gasparotto (G) 28. Habraao 23. Kelvyn 88. Mailton 79. Marcelinho 8. Marlone 27. Regis 11. Romulo 17. Ronaldo Mendes 31. Tarik 77. Walterson	15. Castro 7. Dodo 3. Edson 8. Emerson Santos 16. Jean Carlos 9. Jeh 13. Joilson 77. Matheus Regis 21. Ramon 19. Renato 12. William (G) 31. Ze Mario
Coaches
Umberto Louzer	Joao Brigatti

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
45+1', Haquin L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Giovanni Augusto ↓, Romulo ↑,
46', Marcinho ↓, Mailton ↑,
46', Lucas Buchecha ↓, Ramon ↑,
49', Eduardo Doma 🟨,
71', Thomas Bedinelli ↓, Marlone ↑,
71', JP Galvao ↓, Ronaldo Mendes ↑,
72', Dudu Vieira ↓, Dodo ↑,
79', Gabriel Novaes ↓, Jeh ↑,
79', Iago Dias ↓, Renato ↑,
80', Foguinho ↓, Regis ↑,
82', Ronaldo Mendes 🟨,
83', Emerson Santos ↓,
85', 🟥,
86', Pedro Rocha 🟨,

Preview

Let's enjoy game between two mid-table teams (ranked 10 and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Chapecoense won 2.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Ponte Preta could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Chapecoense will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Chapecoense won 5 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 21-13.

Including matches at home between the teams Chapecoense won 4 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 11-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Serie B
14.05.24	Botafogo SP - Chapecoense	0:0 ✺
10.05.24	CRB Maceio - Chapecoense	2:0 ✺
04.05.24	Chapecoense - América Mineiro	2:2 ✺
26.04.24	Guarani - Chapecoense	0:1 ✺
20.04.24	Chapecoense - Ituano	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 TLTWW
- AA Ponte Preta
Brazilian Serie B
15.05.24	Ponte Preta - Santos	1:2 ✺
11.05.24	Operário Ferroviario - Ponte Preta	1:1 ✺
06.05.24	Ponte Preta - Amazonas	3:0 ✺
28.04.24	Goiás - Ponte Preta	3:0 ✺
21.04.24	Ponte Preta - Coritiba	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
06.08.23	Ponte Preta - Chapecoense	1:0
29.04.23	Chapecoense - Ponte Preta	1:1
03.09.22	Chapecoense - Ponte Preta	3:0
24.05.22	Ponte Preta - Chapecoense	0:0
21.01.21	Chapecoense - Ponte Preta	1:0
20.10.20	Ponte Preta - Chapecoense	0:5
Brazilian Serie A
24.09.17	Chapecoense - Ponte Preta	1:0

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