Match Info

Date: 3 April 2022, Sunday


	Chaves		Nacional

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.2	4.2
	1.82	3.3	3.8
	1.85	3.15	4.1
	1.91	3.25	3.85
	1.88	3.48	4.59
	1.88	3.1	3.9
	1.86	3.45	4.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.8)	3.28 ↑ (3.1)	4.07 ↓ (4.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chaves
49.3%

Draw
28.1%

Nacional
22.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.3%

29.2%

20.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.5%

28.5%

19.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chaves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chaves than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Chaves - Nacional Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

The great teams are gonna meet at this game. The most expected match between two teams from the very top of the group (ranked 5 and 6).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Chaves won 0.

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

In this match Chaves is a favorite.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Chaves won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 11-11.

Including matches at home between the teams Chaves won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 6-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Desportivo Chaves
Portuguese Liga 2
20.03.22	Trofense - Chaves	1:1 ✺
13.03.22	Chaves - Casa Pia	4:1 ✺
06.03.22	Penafiel - Chaves	2:1 ✺
25.02.22	Chaves - Benfica B	1:1 ✺
20.02.22	Porto B - Chaves	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TWLTT
- Atletico Nacional
Portuguese Liga 2
20.03.22	Nacional - Académica Coimbra	3:1 ✺
13.03.22	Mafra - Nacional	3:2 ✺
05.03.22	Nacional - Covilhã	1:1 ✺
27.02.22	Nacional - Trofense	1:1 ✺
19.02.22	Casa Pia - Nacional	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 WLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
08.11.21	Nacional - Chaves	1:1
26.01.20	Chaves - Nacional	0:2
10.08.19	Nacional - Chaves	3:0
Portuguese League Cup
03.08.19	Nacional - Chaves	2:3 penalties
Liga Portugal
28.04.19	Chaves - Nacional	4:1
23.12.18	Nacional - Chaves	2:0
23.01.17	Chaves - Nacional	2:0

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