Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA PORTUGAL - ROUND 14

Date: 17 December 2023, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Sport TV


	Chaves		Casa Pia

	1	X	2
	2.6	3.1	2.75	Watch
	2.5	3.1	2.85	Watch
	2.55	3.2	2.8	Watch
	2.67	3.23	2.9
	2.68	3.23	2.9
	2.6	3.1	2.6	Watch
	2.52	3.28	2.84	Watch
	2.6	3.2	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↓ (2.83)	3.18 ↓ (3.19)	2.81 ↑ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chaves
36.6%

Draw
29.8%

Casa Pia
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.4%

29.6%

37%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33%

30%

37.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chaves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

Casa Pia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chaves than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Casa Pia than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
38.9%	38.9%	22.2%

Chaves - Casa Pia Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Chaves will win (votes: 7 - 38.9%). Casa Pia will win (votes: 4 - 22.2%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 38.9%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Chaves: 16.4% – 61.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Moura R. (G) 4. Bruno Rodrigues 19. Vitoria S. 3. Ygor Nogueira 77. Araujo Correia J. P. (C) 8. Pedro J. 28. Nwakali K. 5. Langa B. A. 7. Benny 99. Jo 23. Hernandez H.	33. Batista R. (G) 15. Varela F. (C) 19. Zolotic N. 77. Tiago Dias 72. Larrazabal G. 16. Beni 8. Neto 5. Lelo L. 11. Soma Y. 99. Clayton 30. Felippe
Substitutes
11. Abass I. 27. Carraca 21. Guimaraes R. 1. Hugo Souza (G) 22. Lameiras R. 70. Morim H. 9. Paulo Victor 44. Queiros J. 10. Sanca L.	17. Brito R. 23. Fernando Andrade 79. Jaja 96. Justo S. 68. Lucas Paes (G) 3. Nunes J. 80. Pablo Roberto 21. Segovia T. 2. Tchamba D.
Coaches
Morgado L.	Moreira P.

Preview

In a match only outsiders will meet (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Chaves won 4.

One and the other team are in an unacceptable form.

Casa Pia could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Chaves: Pinho P. (Injury) Sylla H. (Injury)

There will not play in Casa Pia: Brito R. (Injury) Kiki (Injury) Pablo Roberto (Yellow Cards)

Last 8 head-to-head matches Chaves won 6 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 13-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Chaves won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 8-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Desportivo Chaves
Liga Portugal
10.12.23	Estoril Praia - Chaves	4:0 ✺
01.12.23	Chaves - Vizela	2:1 ✺
11.11.23	Portimonense - Chaves	2:1 ✺
04.11.23	Chaves - Benfica	0:2 ✺
28.10.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Chaves	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LWLLL
- Casa Pia
Liga Portugal
09.12.23	Porto - Casa Pia	3:1 ✺
02.12.23	Casa Pia - Portimonense	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
25.11.23	Nacional - Casa Pia	1:0 penalties ✺
Liga Portugal
10.11.23	Estoril Praia - Casa Pia	4:0 ✺
05.11.23	Casa Pia - Vizela	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
29.04.23	Chaves - Casa Pia	1:0
13.11.22	Casa Pia - Chaves	1:2
Portuguese Liga 2
13.03.22	Chaves - Casa Pia	4:1
23.10.21	Casa Pia - Chaves	1:0
06.04.21	Casa Pia - Chaves	1:2
01.12.20	Chaves - Casa Pia	1:2
Portuguese League Cup
16.11.19	Casa Pia - Chaves	0:1

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