Match Info

Date: 20 March 2022, Sunday


	Trofense		Chaves

	1	X	2
	4.2	3.1	1.95	Watch
	3.7	3.1	1.93
	3.5	3.2	2
	3.9	3.1	1.99
	4.2	3.36	2
	3.8	3.1	1.91
	3.86	3.26	1.96
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.88 ↑ (2.58)	3.17 ↑ (2.85)	1.96 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Trofense
23.8%

Draw
29.1%

Chaves
47.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.4%

32%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.1%

22.7%

46%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Trofense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Trofense's form might have worsened.

Chaves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chaves's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Trofense than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chaves than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

Trofense - Chaves Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 14 and 4).

Trofense is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Chaves is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Chaves will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Trofense won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-8.

Including matches at home between the teams Trofense won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Trofense
Portuguese Liga 2
13.03.22	Covilhã - Trofense	2:0 ✺
06.03.22	Trofense - Farense	1:1 ✺
27.02.22	Nacional - Trofense	1:1 ✺
20.02.22	Trofense - Mafra	1:3 ✺
11.02.22	Casa Pia - Trofense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LTTLL
- Desportivo Chaves
Portuguese Liga 2
13.03.22	Chaves - Casa Pia	4:1 ✺
06.03.22	Penafiel - Chaves	2:1 ✺
25.02.22	Chaves - Benfica B	1:1 ✺
20.02.22	Porto B - Chaves	0:0 ✺
14.02.22	Chaves - Vilafranquense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WLTTW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
29.10.21	Chaves - Trofense	0:0
10.05.15	Chaves - Trofense	6:0
04.01.15	Trofense - Chaves	0:1
10.05.14	Trofense - Chaves	0:0
15.12.13	Chaves - Trofense	1:2

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