Match Info

Liga Portugal 2 - Round 31

Date: 27 April 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Chaves (Chaves)

Referee: Filipe L. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	ZAP
Japan	DAZN Japan
Portugal	Sport TV6


	Chaves		Oliveirense

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.5	5
	1.6	3.8	5.15
	1.65	3.85	5.62
	1.63	3.81	5.36	Watch
	1.62	3.4	5
	1.64	3.74	5.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↑ (1.59)	3.68 ↓ (3.88)	5.21 ↑ (5.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chaves
57.1%

Draw
25.1%

Oliveirense
17.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.2%

23.8%

18%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.9%

20.8%

20.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chaves has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Oliveirense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chaves than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chaves that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oliveirense than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	0%	14.3%

Chaves - Oliveirense Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Chaves (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Chaves will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vozinha (G) 15. Carraca (C) 4. Bruno Rodrigues 33. Simoes T. 3. Romero A. 8. Pinho P. 20. Ktatau 77. Reinaldo 10. Rodrigues A. 30. Kusso D. 17. Roberto	31. Ribeiro R. (C) 4. Bura 75. Namora N. 19. Lopes A. 2. Douglas Borel 99. Sabino 90. Brito T. 26. Bastos L. 17. Lucas Henrique 88. Rodriguez Y. 21. Silva J.
Substitutes
34. Alves R. 27. Esajas R. 23. Gudzulic M. (G) 5. Kiko 22. Muscat Z. 18. Pereira H. 26. Rodrigues G. 29. Tounkara M. 21. Wellington Carvalho	10. Bruno Silva 5. Filipe Alves 40. Greis N. (G) 11. Joanderson 9. Martelo P. 3. Mateus Raniel 80. Onohara K. 14. Pereira D. 13. Santos V.
Coaches
Martins V.	Silva R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', Silva J. 🟨,
37', Pinho P. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
48', 1 - 0, Kusso D. ⚽,
62', Brito T. ↓, Bruno Silva ↑,
63', 1 - 1, Lopes A. ⚽,
71', Kusso D. ↓, Esajas R. ↑,
71', Romero A. ↓, Kiko ↑,
74', Esajas R. 🟨,
81', Bastos L. ↓, Pereira D. ↑,
81', Silva J. ↓, Joanderson ↑,
84', Ktatau ↓, Pereira H. ↑,
84', Reinaldo ↓, Rodrigues G. ↑,
87', Sabino ↓, Martelo P. ↑,
87', Namora N. ↓, Santos V. ↑,
88', 2 - 1, Esajas R. ⚽,
90', Roberto ↓, Tounkara M. ↑,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 13 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga 3).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chaves won 4.

Recent performances by Chaves have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Oliveirense is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Chaves may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Chaves is seen as the favorite.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Chaves won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 26:12. (average 1.9:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Chaves won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:7. (average 1.7:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Chaves	6	1	1	4	5:13	-8	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Desportivo Chaves
Portuguese Liga 2
18.04.26	Paços de Ferreira - Chaves	4:3 ✺
11.04.26	Chaves - Torreense	2:0 ✺
06.04.26	Porto B - Chaves	3:0 ✺
20.03.26	Chaves - Leiria	0:2 ✺
13.03.26	Sporting Lisbon B - Chaves	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LWLLW
- UD Oliveirense
Portuguese Liga 2
22.04.26	Oliveirense - Benfica B	3:0 ✺
12.04.26	Leixões - Oliveirense	2:0 ✺
03.04.26	Oliveirense - Portimonense	1:2 ✺
21.03.26	Marítimo - Oliveirense	1:0 ✺
16.03.26	Porto B - Oliveirense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 2
12.12.25	Oliveirense - Chaves	2:3
15.03.25	Chaves - Oliveirense	4:0
26.10.24	Oliveirense - Chaves	0:3
07.03.21	Oliveirense - Chaves	0:1
20.10.20	Chaves - Oliveirense	0:2
07.12.19	Chaves - Oliveirense	0:2
02.04.16	Oliveirense - Chaves	0:3

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