Match Info

Club Friendly

Date: 25 September 2026, Friday


	Chaves		Vitoria Guimarães

	1	X	2
	4.10	3.80	1.63
	4.35	4.00	1.57
	4.11	3.86	1.67
	4.26	4	1.66
	4.05	3.80	1.62
	4.02	4.33	1.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.15 ↑ (4.13)	3.97 ↑ (3.91)	1.64 ↑ (1.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chaves
21.8%

Draw
22.8%

Vitoria Guimarães
55.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.7%

22.9%

55.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.5%

22.1%

53.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chaves has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Vitoria Guimarães has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chaves than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Chaves - Vitoria Guimarães Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
83', 0 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chaves won 1.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Guimarães carries the favorite tag into this contest.

In the last 15 head-to-head meetings, Chaves has recorded 3 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 16:31 (averaging 1.1:2.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Chaves against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses, with 12:12 goals (averaging 1.5:1.5 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Vitoria Guimarães - the odds 1.62 are the expected chance of winning is 55.34%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Desportivo Chaves
Taça de Portugal
20.09.26	Guarda FC - Chaves	2:3 ✺
Portuguese Liga 2
13.09.26	Chaves - Feirense	1:0 ✺
30.08.26	Felgueiras - Chaves	2:1 ✺
23.08.26	Chaves - AVS	2:2 ✺
15.08.26	Sporting Lisbon B - Chaves	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WWLTL
- Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal
20.09.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Moreirense	1:1 ✺
12.09.26	Académico de Viseu - Vitoria Guimarães	2:1 ✺
06.09.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Casa Pia	0:0 ✺
31.08.26	Braga - Vitoria Guimarães	1:0 ✺
23.08.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Nacional	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
01.08.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Chaves	2:0
02.08.25	Chaves - Vitoria Guimarães	2:1
Liga Portugal
17.03.24	Chaves - Vitoria Guimarães	1:2
28.10.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Chaves	5:0
30.01.23	Vitoria Guimarães - Chaves	2:1
07.08.22	Chaves - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1
06.04.19	Vitoria Guimarães - Chaves	4:0

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