Match Info

National League South - Round 10

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday


	Chelmsford City		Dorking Wanderers

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.25	2.25
	2.78	3.4	2.28
	2.87	3.61	2.27
	1.25	4.45	20.50	Watch
	2.87	3.38	2.3
	2.75	3.35	2.26
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↓ (2.69)	3.57 ↑ (3.48)	5.31 ↑ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelmsford City
45.7%

Draw
32.5%

Dorking Wanderers
21.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

26.3%

39.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.8%

26%

40%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelmsford City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chelmsford City's performance.

Dorking Wanderers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-17.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Dorking Wanderers might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelmsford City than the current prediction. (-11.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chelmsford City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dorking Wanderers than the current prediction. (+18.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Dorking Wanderers could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Chelmsford City - Dorking Wanderers Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', 1 - 0, Remy S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
86', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 10 and 9)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chelmsford won 0.

Chelmsford has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Dorking is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Chelmsford may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Dorking has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Chelmsford won 0 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:15. (average 0.9:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Chelmsford won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:9. (average 1:2.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chelmsford City
English FA Cup
27.09.25	Alvechurch - Chelmsford City	1:2 ✺
English National League South
20.09.25	Bath City - Chelmsford City	0:1 ✺
06.09.25	Maidenhead United - Chelmsford City	2:1 ✺
01.09.25	Chelmsford City - Farnborough	2:5 ✺
30.08.25	Chelmsford City - Chesham United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WWLLW
- Dorking Wanderers
English FA Cup
30.09.25	Dorking Wanderers - Salisbury	4:2 ✺
27.09.25	Salisbury - Dorking Wanderers	1:1 ✺
English National League South
20.09.25	Dorking Wanderers - Dagenham & Redbridge	0:0 ✺
English FA Cup
13.09.25	Dorking Wanderers - Wingate & Finchley	7:2 ✺
English National League South
06.09.25	Dorking Wanderers - Totton	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WTTWW

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
08.03.25	Dorking Wanderers - Chelmsford City	2:2
09.11.24	Chelmsford City - Dorking Wanderers	0:4
19.02.22	Dorking Wanderers - Chelmsford City	2:0
04.09.21	Chelmsford City - Dorking Wanderers	2:2
15.02.21	Chelmsford City - Dorking Wanderers	0:1
15.02.20	Dorking Wanderers - Chelmsford City	2:0
09.11.19	Chelmsford City - Dorking Wanderers	2:2

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