Match Info

ENGLAND: NATIONAL LEAGUE SOUTH - ROUND 44

Date: 15 April 2023, Saturday


	Chelmsford City		Hungerford Town

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.8	4.8
	1.57	3.95	4.5
	1.61	4.18	4.59
	1.61	3.92	5.05
	1.57	3.95	4.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↑ (1.45)	3.96 ↓ (4)	4.73 ↓ (6.65)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelmsford City
57.7%

Draw
23%

Hungerford Town
19.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

63.3%

22.9%

13.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.4%

21.8%

13.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelmsford City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Chelmsford City's form might have worsened.

Hungerford Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Hungerford Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chelmsford City than the current prediction. (+8.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chelmsford City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hungerford Town than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hungerford Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Chelmsford City - Hungerford Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ National League South (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 23 in the zone Relegation).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Chelmsford won 1.

Chelmsford is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Hungerford is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Hungerford could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Chelmsford is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Chelmsford to win the game is with odds 1.59.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Chelmsford won 4 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 24-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Chelmsford won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 14-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chelmsford City
English National League South
10.04.23	Oxford City - Chelmsford City	3:1 ✺
07.04.23	Chelmsford City - Farnborough	3:2 ✺
25.03.23	Dartford - Chelmsford City	1:2 ✺
18.03.23	Chelmsford City - Worthing	4:2 ✺
14.03.23	Concord Rangers - Chelmsford City	1:2
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.8 LWWWW
- Hungerford Town
English National League South
13.04.23	Concord Rangers - Hungerford Town	1:0 ✺
10.04.23	Hungerford Town - Havant & Waterlooville	1:1 ✺
07.04.23	Hampton & Richmond Borough - Hungerford Town	2:0 ✺
25.03.23	Tonbridge Angels - Hungerford Town	4:3 ✺
18.03.23	Hungerford Town - Braintree Town	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
31.01.23	Hungerford Town - Chelmsford City	1:1
26.03.22	Chelmsford City - Hungerford Town	0:2
22.01.22	Hungerford Town - Chelmsford City	2:1
25.01.20	Hungerford Town - Chelmsford City	1:0
07.12.19	Chelmsford City - Hungerford Town	4:1
English FA Trophy
23.11.19	Chelmsford City - Hungerford Town	2:1
English National League South
02.02.19	Chelmsford City - Hungerford Town	4:1

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