Match Info

FNL - Round 15

Date: 20 October 2025, Monday

Location: Centralnyy (Novorossiysk)

Referee: Novikov N. (Rus)


	Chernomorets Novorossiysk		Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk

	1	X	2
	2.17	3.2	3.67
	2.22	3.18	3.56	Watch
	2.15	3	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.25)	3.13 ↑ (2.85)	3.53 ↑ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chernomorets Novorossiysk
43.2%

Draw
30.1%

Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk
26.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.8%

32.2%

27%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

32.4%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chernomorets Novorossiysk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chernomorets Novorossiysk than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	44.4%	11.1%

Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Chernomorets will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Neftekhimik will win (votes: 1 - 11.1%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Chernomorets: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Chernomorets Novorossiysk will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
73. Shtepa M. (G) 18. Nikolaev O. 4. Kirsch I. 3. Pliev Z. (C) 17. Zhilkin G. 10. Zhigulev I. 8. Tarba Z. 99. Morozov K. 7. Antonov A. 69. Rodionov I. 9. Aliev S.	51. Kashintsev T. (G) 2. Sitdikov M. (C) 6. Rodin D. 65. Tolstopyatov N. 17. Valiakhmetov E. 8. Kantaria G. 15. Nikitin A. 10. Kokoev D. 70. Bober I. 90. Shiltsov K. 14. Mashukov I.
Substitutes
11. Gurchenko D. 31. Kasimov T. 5. Krachkovskii A. 44. Kukharchuk I. 25. Lozhkin V. 32. Matyusha M. (G) 19. Pomeshkin K. 13. Puzanov S. 90. Sutugin I. 59. Syshchenko M. 81. Tonevitskiy E. 77. Zarypbekov E.	7. Dzhamilov S. 97. Filipovskiy M. 24. Kakhidze A. 9. Magomedov R. 23. Mikhaylov D. 53. Moiseev K. 5. Musalov M. 43. Prisyazhnenko N. (G) 11. Sukhomlinov D.
Coaches
Evseev V.	Novikov K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
20', 0 - 1, Kokoev D. ⚽,
36', Zhigulev I. 🟨,
41', Tolstopyatov N. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Shiltsov K. ↓, Sukhomlinov D. ↑,
50', 1 - 1, Aliev S. ⚽,
54', Nikolaev O. 🟨,
59', Antonov A. ↓, Zarypbekov E. ↑,
63', Sitdikov M. 🟨,
65', Sitdikov M. ↓, Musalov M. ↑,
65', Mashukov I. ↓, Dzhamilov S. ↑,
77', Nikolaev O. ↓, Lozhkin V. ↑,
82', Zhigulev I. ↓, Pomeshkin K. ↑,
90+2', Morozov K. 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 13 and 9).

In recent matches, Chernomorets has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Neftekhimik is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Chernomorets will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Chernomorets won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 0.8:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Chernomorets won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1. (average 0:0.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - the odds 3.4 are the expected chance of winning is 27%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chernomorets Novorossiysk
Russian Cup
16.10.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Kuban-Kholding	1:2 ✺
Russian FNL
12.10.25	Rotor - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	2:0 ✺
05.10.25	Torpedo Moscow - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:4 ✺
29.09.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - KAMAZ	1:0 ✺
Russian Cup
24.09.25	Astrakhan - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 LLWWW
- FC Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk
Russian Cup
15.10.25	Shinnik - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	1:2 penalties ✺
Russian FNL
11.10.25	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - Chayka Peschanokopskoye	2:3 ✺
05.10.25	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - Rotor	0:0 ✺
29.09.25	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - Arsenal Tula	1:0 ✺
Russian Cup
24.09.25	Volgar Astrakhan - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
19.05.25	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	0:2
19.10.24	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	0:0
26.11.23	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	0:1
06.08.23	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:1

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