Match Info

FNL - Round 12

Date: 29 September 2025, Monday

Location: Neftekhimik Stadium (Nizhnekamsk)

Referee: Sokolov O. (Rus)


	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk		Arsenal Tula

	1	X	2
	3.06	3.1	2.56
	2.82	3.01	2.62	Watch
	2.65	2.9	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.84 ↑ (2.65)	3 ↑ (2.9)	2.66 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk
33.2%

Draw
31.4%

Arsenal Tula
35.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35%

31.9%

33.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36%

31%

32.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Arsenal Tula has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arsenal Tula than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - Arsenal Tula Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Neftekhimik (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Arsenal (1.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Neftekhimik (votes: 1 - 50%). Arsenal (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
51. Kashintsev T. (G) 75. Shadrintsev D. 65. Tolstopyatov N. (C) 12. Shiryaev M. 17. Valiakhmetov E. 6. Rodin D. 15. Nikitin A. 10. Kokoev D. 70. Bober I. 90. Shiltsov K. 9. Magomedov R.	18. Tsulaya M. (G) 45. Karmaev N. 44. Isaenko O. 4. Penchikov D. 15. Putsko A. 59. Avanesyan T. 25. Troshechkin A. 14. Brnovic M. 78. Lipovoy D. 7. Reyes E. 9. Kalmykov A. (C)
Substitutes
7. Dzhamilov S. 97. Filipovskiy M. 8. Kantaria G. 14. Mashukov I. 23. Mikhaylov D. 53. Moiseev K. 5. Musalov M. 43. Prisyazhnenko N. (G) 11. Sukhomlinov D.	17. Ahlinvi M. 24. Azyavin I. 77. Berdnikov A. 19. Bogdanets K. 31. Bolshakov K. 48. Lychagin A. 29. Maximov M. 42. Melikhov A. (G) 46. Moskalenchik I. 21. Razdorskikh N. 5. Sergeev D.
Coaches
Novikov K.	Gunko D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Magomedov R. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
69', Isaenko O. ↓, Berdnikov A. ↑,
69', Reyes E. ↓, Maximov M. ↑,
73', Bober I. ↓, Sukhomlinov D. ↑,
79', Lipovoy D. ↓, Ahlinvi M. ↑,
79', Avanesyan T. ↓, Razdorskikh N. ↑,
89', Magomedov R. ↓, Mashukov I. ↑,
90+3', Shadrintsev D. 🟨,
90+4', Shiltsov K. ↓, Kantaria G. ↑,
90+4', Nikitin A. ↓, Moiseev K. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 10 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Neftekhimik won 1.

Neftekhimik is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Arsenal has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Neftekhimik may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Neftekhimik won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:11. (average 1:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Neftekhimik won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 1.3:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - the odds 2.65 are the expected chance of winning is 34.96%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk
Russian Cup
24.09.25	Volgar Astrakhan - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	1:2 penalties ✺
Russian FNL
20.09.25	Volga Ulyanovsk - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	1:4 ✺
15.09.25	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - Yenisey Krasnoyarsk	1:0 ✺
08.09.25	Ural - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	1:1 ✺
03.09.25	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - Rodina Moscow	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.3 WWWTL
- Arsenal Tula
Russian Cup
25.09.25	Volna Kovernino - Arsenal Tula	0:3 ✺
Russian FNL
20.09.25	Arsenal Tula - Ufa	2:2 ✺
13.09.25	Arsenal Tula - Spartak Kostroma	1:2 ✺
08.09.25	Fakel - Arsenal Tula	1:0 ✺
03.09.25	Arsenal Tula - SKA Khabarovsk	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
16.11.24	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - Arsenal Tula	2:2
11.08.24	Arsenal Tula - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	1:1
11.05.24	Arsenal Tula - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	1:0
01.10.23	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - Arsenal Tula	0:0
02.04.23	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - Arsenal Tula	1:0
11.09.22	Arsenal Tula - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	2:1
23.03.14	Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk - Arsenal Tula	2:3

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