Match Info

FNL - Round 19

Date: 15 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Centralnyy (Novorossiysk)

Referee: Sokolov O. (Rus)


	Chernomorets Novorossiysk		Volga Ulyanovsk

	1	X	2
	2.67	3.18	2.82
	2.62	3.18	2.86	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.65 ↑ (2.09)	3.18 ↓ (3.26)	2.84 ↓ (3.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chernomorets Novorossiysk
36.2%

Draw
30.1%

Volga Ulyanovsk
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.4%

29.1%

25.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46%

28.7%

25.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chernomorets Novorossiysk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Chernomorets Novorossiysk's form might have worsened.

Volga Ulyanovsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Volga Ulyanovsk's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chernomorets Novorossiysk than the current prediction. (+9.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chernomorets Novorossiysk, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Volga Ulyanovsk than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Volga Ulyanovsk, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Volga Ulyanovsk Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Chernomorets (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Matyusha M. (G) 18. Nikolaev O. 81. Tonevitskiy E. 59. Syshchenko M. 13. Puzanov S. 8. Tarba Z. 77. Zarypbekov E. 25. Lozhkin V. 10. Zhigulev I. (C) 7. Antonov A. 9. Aliev S.	1. Kenyaykin A. (G) 20. Kovalev K. 4. Ibragimov K. 30. Khabibullin A. (C) 3. Krasilnichenko O. 17. Gershun I. 27. Umnikov M. 29. Shagiakhmetov R. 8. Rakhmanov D. 9. Kamenshchikov D. 90. Folmer K.
Substitutes
15. Alikberov T. 11. Gurchenko D. 74. Kazimov A. 5. Krachkovskii A. 44. Kukharchuk I. 99. Morozov K. 19. Pomeshkin K. 73. Shtepa M. (G) 90. Sutugin I.	77. Gutsa A. 92. Kasyanov I. 91. Molodtsov A. 7. Murza A. 28. Novikov D. 87. Pshennikov E. 22. Rakhmanov D. 19. Rudenko V. 86. Shaykhutdinov V. (G) 10. Uridia G. 14. Yakovlev V.
Coaches
Evseev V.	Belov M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', Kovalev K. 🟨,
20', Ibragimov K. 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Aliev S. ⚽,
45', 1 - 1, Folmer K. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Nikolaev O. ↓, Morozov K. ↑,
46', Matyusha M. ↓, Shtepa M. ↑,
48', 2 - 1, Antonov A. ⚽,
61', Zhigulev I. 🟨,
62', Umnikov M. ↓, Pshennikov E. ↑,
63', Kovalev K. ↓, Novikov D. ↑,
68', Gershun I. ↓, Uridia G. ↑,
68', Lozhkin V. ↓, Krachkovskii A. ↑,
77', Kamenshchikov D. ↓, Yakovlev V. ↑,
77', Rakhmanov D. ↓, Gutsa A. ↑,
80', Antonov A. 🟨,
87', Zhigulev I. ↓, Sutugin I. ↑,
89', Aliev S. ↓, Alikberov T. ↑,
90+5', Gutsa A. 🟨,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 15 and 14).

Chernomorets has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Volga Ulyanovsk has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Chernomorets could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Chernomorets won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chernomorets Novorossiysk
Russian FNL
09.11.25	Yenisey Krasnoyarsk - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:0 ✺
02.11.25	Spartak Kostroma - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	3:1 ✺
25.10.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Chelyabinsk	0:0 ✺
20.10.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	1:1 ✺
Russian Cup
16.10.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Kuban-Kholding	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 LLTTL
- FC Volga Ulyanovsk
Russian FNL
08.11.25	KAMAZ - Volga Ulyanovsk	2:3 ✺
02.11.25	Volga Ulyanovsk - Rodina Moscow	1:2 ✺
25.10.25	Sokol Saratov - Volga Ulyanovsk	1:0 ✺
20.10.25	Volga Ulyanovsk - Ufa	2:0 ✺
11.10.25	Volga Ulyanovsk - Yenisey Krasnoyarsk	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL
03.09.25	Volga Ulyanovsk - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:1

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