Match Info

FNL - Round 16

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Centralnyy (Novorossiysk)


	Chernomorets Novorossiysk		Chelyabinsk

	1	X	2
	2.42	3.04	3.24
	2.41	3.08	3.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.42 ↑ (2.22)	3.06 ↑ (3.06)	3.25 ↓ (3.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chernomorets Novorossiysk
39.5%

Draw
31.2%

Chelyabinsk
29.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

31%

26.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45%

32.6%

24.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chernomorets Novorossiysk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Chelyabinsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chernomorets Novorossiysk than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chernomorets Novorossiysk, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelyabinsk than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Chelyabinsk Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
73. Shtepa M. (G) 18. Nikolaev O. 59. Syshchenko M. 4. Kirsch I. 17. Zhilkin G. 77. Zarypbekov E. 10. Zhigulev I. 99. Morozov K. (C) 7. Antonov A. 69. Rodionov I. 9. Aliev S.	93. Tuseev I. (G) 66. Gudkov Y. 2. Zhirov A. (C) 22. Gapechkin A. 5. Gatin B. 10. Gadzhimuradov R. 77. Samoilov D. 70. Levin G. 18. Kertanov K. 29. Urvantsev M. 15. Pushkarev D.
Substitutes
11. Gurchenko D. 31. Kasimov T. 5. Krachkovskii A. 44. Kukharchuk I. 25. Lozhkin V. 32. Matyusha M. (G) 19. Pomeshkin K. 13. Puzanov S. 90. Sutugin I. 81. Tonevitskiy E.	33. Agaev A. 23. Emelyanov D. 88. Eza W. 19. Komissarov T. 63. Nikitenkov A. 11. Nosov A. 72. Novikov O. (G) 14. Palkin V. 1. Zadiraka V. (G)
Coaches
Evseev V.	Pilipchuk R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
37', Gapechkin A. 🟥,
41', Gadzhimuradov R. 🟨,
45', Kirsch I. 🟨,
45', Zhilkin G. ↓, Puzanov S. ↑,
45', Morozov K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Antonov A. ↓, Kasimov T. ↑,
46', Pushkarev D. ↓, Komissarov T. ↑,
60', Rodionov I. ↓, Gurchenko D. ↑,
61', Puzanov S. ↓, Kukharchuk I. ↑,
70', Zhigulev I. 🟨,
71', Urvantsev M. ↓, Nosov A. ↑,
72', Zarypbekov E. ↓, Pomeshkin K. ↑,
75', Kirsch I. 🟨,
87', Nikolaev O. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 13 and 7).

Chernomorets has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Chelyabinsk is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Chernomorets may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Chernomorets could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chernomorets Novorossiysk
Russian FNL
20.10.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk	1:1 ✺
Russian Cup
16.10.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Kuban-Kholding	1:2 ✺
Russian FNL
12.10.25	Rotor - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	2:0 ✺
05.10.25	Torpedo Moscow - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:4 ✺
29.09.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - KAMAZ	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 TLLWW
- FC Chelyabinsk
Russian FNL
19.10.25	Chelyabinsk - Arsenal Tula	2:2 ✺
Russian Cup
15.10.25	Rodina Moscow - Chelyabinsk	0:1 penalties ✺
Russian FNL
06.10.25	Chelyabinsk - Yenisey Krasnoyarsk	0:0 ✺
28.09.25	Ufa - Chelyabinsk	0:0 ✺
Russian Cup
25.09.25	Irkutsk - Chelyabinsk	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 TWTTW

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