Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Akron (Zapopan)

Referee: Perez S. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, FOX One
Usa	FOX Deportes, FOX Deportes, NBC Universo, NBC, Peacock, Telemundo, UNIVERSO NOW


	Chivas Guadalajara		Querétaro

	1	X	2
	1.61	4.1	5	Watch
	1.60	4.10	5.00
	1.6	3.85	4.9	Watch
	1.66	4.22	5.17
	1.63	4.18	4.99
	1.57	4.25	5.45
	1.64	4.13	5.3	Watch
	1.63	4	4.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↑ (1.41)	4.1 ↓ (4.6)	5.08 ↓ (6.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chivas Guadalajara
58.4%

Draw
23%

Querétaro
18.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.3%

20%

14.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67%

19.5%

14.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chivas Guadalajara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Chivas Guadalajara's form might have worsened.

Querétaro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chivas Guadalajara than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chivas Guadalajara, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Querétaro than the current prediction. (-4.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	25%	25%

Chivas Guadalajara - Querétaro Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Guadalajara will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Querétaro will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.25 - Guadalajara (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Guadalajara (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Whalley O. (G) 23. Aguirre D. 3. Campillo Del Campo D. 7. Romo L. (C) 30. Sandoval S. 6. Govea O. 28. Gonzalez F. 14. Camberos H. 19. Castaneda K. 11. Gutierrez B. 17. Marin R.	25. Allison G. (G) 24. Duarte B. 13. Reyes D. (C) 2. Abascia L. 27. Parra D. 4. Garcia C. 5. Homenchenko S. 16. Gimenez E. 11. Coronel M. 7. Benito I. 9. Avila A.
Substitutes
10. Alvarez E. 33. Carrillo J. 56. Chavez A. 57. Hernandez J. 59. Inda S. 37. Ledezma R. 18. Perez J. 16. Rey L. 190. Romero A. (G) 9. Sepulveda A.	20. Alcala A. 1. Hernandez J. (G) 29. Madrid W. 30. Martinez J. 17. Munoz D. 8. Parra B. 12. Paulo Victor 26. Perez E. 23. Robles J. 15. Villanueva C.
Coaches
Milito G.	Gonzalez E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
12', 0 - 1, Avila A. ⚽, Gimenez E. (A),
41', Duarte B. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Gonzalez F. ↓, Ledezma R. ↑,
46', Gutierrez B. ↓, Sepulveda A. ↑,
52', Duarte B. ↓, Villanueva C. ↑,
62', Castaneda K. ↓, Alvarez E. ↑,
65', Benito I. ↓, Parra B. ↑,
68', 0 - 2, Coronel M. ⚽, Gimenez E. (A),
77', Camberos H. ↓, Carrillo J. ↑,
83', Coronel M. ↓, Alcala A. ↑,
83', Garcia C. ↓, Paulo Victor ↑,
85', Aguirre D. ↓, Rey L. ↑,
87', Abascia L. 🟨,
90', Govea O. 🟥,

Preview

A clash between two contenders competing at the top of the table (ranked 2nd in the Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ PlayoffsQuarter~finals) and 6th in the Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ PlayoffsQuarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara won 3.

Guadalajara has displayed good consistency in recent games (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Querétaro has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Guadalajara may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Bookmakers give the edge to Guadalajara for this game.

Confirmed absences for Guadalajara: Gomez M. (Muscle Injury).

Confirmed absences for Querétaro: Duenas E. (Knee Injury).

Doubtful / questionable for Guadalajara: Castillo J. (Muscle Injury).

Our forecast points to a victory for Guadalajara in today's match, at odds of 1.53.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Guadalajara has recorded 6 wins, 11 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 23:18 (averaging 1.2:0.9 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Guadalajara against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 6 draws, and 0 losses, with 12:8 goals (averaging 1.3:0.9 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Queretaro	10	6	2	2	15:8	7	20
4	Guadalajara Chivas	11	5	4	2	18:11	7	19

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chivas Guadalajara
Mexican Liga MX
19.09.26	Club América - Chivas Guadalajara	2:2 ✺
13.09.26	Chivas Guadalajara - UNAM	3:0 ✺
05.09.26	Atlético San Luis - Chivas Guadalajara	0:3 ✺
29.08.26	Pachuca - Chivas Guadalajara	1:1 ✺
22.08.26	Chivas Guadalajara - Tijuana	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 TWWTW
- Querétaro FC
Mexican Liga MX
20.09.26	Querétaro - Club León	1:1 ✺
11.09.26	Tijuana - Querétaro	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Atlas - Querétaro	1:3 ✺
21.08.26	Querétaro - Toluca	1:2 ✺
16.08.26	UNAM - Querétaro	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.7 TWWLT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
17.01.26	Chivas Guadalajara - Querétaro	2:1
22.10.25	Querétaro - Chivas Guadalajara	1:0
01.02.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Querétaro	1:1
16.07.24	Querétaro - Chivas Guadalajara	0:2
20.04.24	Chivas Guadalajara - Querétaro	2:0
31.10.23	Querétaro - Chivas Guadalajara	1:2
05.02.23	Chivas Guadalajara - Querétaro	1:1

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