Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 5

Date: 21 August 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio La Corregidora (Querétaro)

Referee: Peinado Aguirre Y. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	FOX One, FOX Sports, VIX
Usa	SportsEngine Play, TUDN


	Querétaro		Toluca

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.6	1.91	Watch
	3.75	3.70	1.87
	3.7	3.6	1.88	Watch
	3.83	3.85	1.99
	3.73	3.78	1.91	Watch
	3.75	3.8	1.93
	4.01	3.65	1.93	Watch
	3.65	3.65	1.91
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.77 ↑ (3.45)	3.7 ↑ (3.63)	1.92 ↓ (1.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Querétaro
25.1%

Draw
25.5%

Toluca
49.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.7%

25.5%

47.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26%

24.8%

49.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Querétaro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Querétaro than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Querétaro - Toluca Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Allison G. (G) 24. Duarte B. 13. Reyes D. (C) 2. Abascia L. 27. Parra D. 4. Garcia C. 5. Homenchenko S. 16. Gimenez E. 20. Alcala A. 12. Paulo Victor 9. Avila A.	1. Gonzalez H. (G) 2. Barbosa D. 4. Bruno Mendez 6. Pereira F. 25. del Villar E. 5. Romero F. 24. Arce F. 11. Helinho 10. Angulo J. 9. Vega A. (C) 16. Vinas F.
Substitutes
7. Benito I. 11. Coronel M. 18. Duenas E. 1. Hernandez J. (G) 29. Madrid W. 30. Martinez J. 8. Parra B. 26. Perez E. 23. Robles J. 22. Unjanque J.	12. Beltran R. (G) 3. Briseno A. 8. Castro N. 29. Diaz Price J. 17. Garcia Caprizo B. A. 35. Gutierrez E. 7. Guzman V. 13. Luan 15. Perez P. 23. Virgen O.
Coaches
Gonzalez E.	Mohamed A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Vega A. 🟨,
31', Barbosa D. 🟥,
45+5', Arce F. 🟨,
45+6', Avila A. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
46', Vega A. ↓, Castro N. ↑,
46', Arce F. ↓, Garcia Caprizo B. A. ↑,
55', Avila A. 🟨,
58', Paulo Victor ↓, Benito I. ↑,
58', Alcala A. ↓, Coronel M. ↑,
65', 0 - 1, Helinho ⚽,
74', Helinho ↓, Luan ↑,
74', Angulo J. ↓, Diaz Price J. ↑,
74', Castro N. 🟨,
74', Duarte B. ↓, Madrid W. ↑,
74', Garcia C. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
79', 1 - 1, Homenchenko S. ⚽, Parra D. (A),
81', Benito I. 🟨,
85', Bruno Mendez ↓, Guzman V. ↑,
90', Homenchenko S. 🟨,
90', 1 - 2, Vinas F. (Penalty Awarded),
90+3', Parra D. ↓, Perez E. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Querétaro won 1.

Querétaro is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Toluca is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Querétaro has had a series of away games.

Recently, Toluca has had a series of home games.

Toluca is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Querétaro: Villanueva C. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Toluca: Castro N. (Injury) Paulinho (Calf Injury) Ruiz M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Querétaro: Coronel M. (Thigh Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Querétaro won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 22:39. (average 1.1:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Querétaro won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.2:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Toluca	11	6	2	3	25:15	10	20
5	Queretaro	9	5	2	2	13:8	5	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Querétaro FC
Mexican Liga MX
16.08.26	UNAM - Querétaro	0:0 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
12.08.26	Los Angeles - Querétaro	2:1 penalties ✺
09.08.26	Seattle Sounders - Querétaro	3:0 ✺
05.08.26	FC Dallas - Querétaro	2:0 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
01.08.26	Querétaro - Tigres UANL	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 TLLLW
- Deportivo Toluca
Mexican Liga MX
15.08.26	Atlante - Toluca	0:0 ✺
CONCACAF League Cup
12.08.26	Toluca - FC Dallas	3:1 ✺
08.08.26	Toluca - Los Angeles	0:1 ✺
05.08.26	Toluca - Seattle Sounders	3:0 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
02.08.26	Toluca - Necaxa	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
04.04.26	Querétaro - Toluca	1:0
18.10.25	Toluca - Querétaro	4:0
26.02.25	Toluca - Querétaro	5:0
18.10.24	Querétaro - Toluca	0:1
12.01.24	Querétaro - Toluca	2:2
08.10.23	Toluca - Querétaro	3:1
05.03.23	Querétaro - Toluca	1:0

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