Match Info

Division 1 - Round 29

Date: 17 April 2026, Friday

Location: Stadion Chrobrego (Głogów)

Referee: Krasny S. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app


	Chrobry Głogów		Stal Mielec

	1	X	2
	2.3	3.25	2.8
	2.32	3.25	2.92	Watch
	2.37	3.38	3.09
	2.52	3.27	2.77	Watch
	2.25	3.1	2.88
	2.37	3.34	2.88	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.36 ↓ (2.58)	3.27 ↓ (3.3)	2.89 ↑ (2.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chrobry Głogów
39.4%

Draw
28.4%

Stal Mielec
32.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.7%

27.9%

36.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.2%

28.3%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chrobry Głogów has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)

Stal Mielec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chrobry Głogów than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	40%	40%

Chrobry Głogów - Stal Mielec Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Chrobry will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Stal Mielec will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Arndt D. (G) 21. Kozajda M. 8. Gric J. 18. Mazur M. 28. Lis J. 7. Bonecki S. 5. Bak R. 16. Mandrysz R. (C) 27. Laskowski K. 11. Strozik S. 30. Bartlewicz S.	99. Gostomski M. (G) 27. Diez A. 70. Tsykalo Y. 15. Senger M. 5. Matynia H. 24. Nunez C. 18. Wlazlo P. (C) 6. Pisek J. 90. Kruszelnicki P. 25. Fucak K. 78. Cybulski K.
Substitutes
24. Grzelak K. 17. Ibe-Torti K. 95. Lenarcik P. (G) 23. Lewkot S. 9. Ozimek M. 72. Szablowski J. 80. Tabis K. 29. Tupaj P. 44. Zarowny A.	33. Bukowski A. 10. Domanski M. 32. Gerbowski F. 22. Kavcic M. 71. Kowalski J. 88. Lukic D. 1. Matys M. (G) 11. Odolak K. 20. Szeliga B.
Coaches
Becella L.	Mamrot I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
2', 1 - 0, Tsykalo Y. (Own goal),
27', Matynia H. 🟨,
28', 2 - 0, Bak R. ⚽, Mandrysz R. (A),
39', 2 - 1, Gric J. (Own goal),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Matynia H. ↓, Kavcic M. ↑,
61', Bartlewicz S. ↓, Szablowski J. ↑,
67', Strozik S. ↓, Ozimek M. ↑,
67', Bonecki S. ↓, Lewkot S. ↑,
73', Cybulski K. ↓, Kowalski J. ↑,
83', Mazur M. 🟨,
86', Kruszelnicki P. ↓, Gerbowski F. ↑,
86', Pisek J. ↓, Domanski M. ↑,
89', Diez A. ↓, Odolak K. ↑,
90+4', Bak R. ↓, Zarowny A. ↑,

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Division 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chrobry won 2.

Chrobry has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Stal Mielec is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Chrobry won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:17. (average 1.2:1.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Chrobry won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:6. (average 1:1.5).

Outrights of Polish Division 1 for now

Stal Mielec: 0.41% Chrobry Glogow: 0.41%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Chrobry Glogow	9	3	3	3	11:8	3	12
16	Stal Mielec	9	2	3	4	14:23	-9	9

Last Results with these Odds

Chrobry Głogów - the odds 2.58 are the expected chance of winning is 35.74%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Stal Mielec - the odds 2.53 are the expected chance of winning is 36.37%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chrobry Głogów
Polish Division 1
11.04.26	Górnik Łęczna - Chrobry Głogów	1:0 ✺
06.04.26	Chrobry Głogów - Ruch Chorzów	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Pogoń Siedlce - Chrobry Głogów	1:2 ✺
13.03.26	Chrobry Głogów - Puszcza Niepołomice	1:2 ✺
07.03.26	Chrobry Głogów - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 LTWLW
- Stal Mielec
Polish Division 1
11.04.26	Stal Mielec - Stal Rzeszów	3:1 ✺
06.04.26	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Stal Mielec	1:2 ✺
22.03.26	Stal Mielec - Wieczysta Kraków	3:1 ✺
14.03.26	Ruch Chorzów - Stal Mielec	2:1 ✺
06.03.26	Stal Mielec - GKS Tychy	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.6 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
03.10.25	Stal Mielec - Chrobry Głogów	1:2
14.07.20	Stal Mielec - Chrobry Głogów	1:0
27.10.19	Chrobry Głogów - Stal Mielec	1:0
28.04.19	Stal Mielec - Chrobry Głogów	5:1
13.10.18	Chrobry Głogów - Stal Mielec	0:0
13.05.18	Chrobry Głogów - Stal Mielec	3:5
21.10.17	Stal Mielec - Chrobry Głogów	3:0

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