Match Info

Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 19

Date: 23 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega (Cusco)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Fanatiz
Peru	Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Cienciano		Ayacucho

	1	X	2
	1.5	4.5	5.75	Watch
	1.46	4.9	5.4	Watch
	1.38	4.84	6.63
	1.38	5.05	6.83	Watch
	1.42	4.5	6.79	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.43 ↑ (1.35)	4.76 ↓ (5.05)	6.28 ↓ (7.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cienciano
65.5%

Draw
19.6%

Ayacucho
14.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

69.1%

18.4%

12.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

72.7%

17.5%

12%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cienciano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

Ayacucho has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cienciano than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cienciano, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ayacucho than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Cienciano - Ayacucho Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Bolado J. (G) 6. Galeano L. 4. Amondarain M. 70. Valoyes J. 20. Benites Vargas L. E. 39. Aguirre G. 5. Arias Fierro S. D. 8. Gonzalez A. 13. Hohberg A. 21. Garces C. 77. Souza Espana C.	23. Valencia J. (G) 29. Falconi J. 55. Leon Canchanya B. H. 22. Bilbao J. 12. Caro D. 66. de la Cruz A. 77. Lucumi J. 8. Ramirez D. 18. Orue D. 4. Yovera A. 99. Caballero F.
Substitutes
15. Amasifuen N. 29. Barrios I. (G) 18. Gamero Y. 22. Neira C. 17. Noronha O. 26. Palomino R. 55. Ramua A. 32. Rodriguez H. 99. Sandoval R.	88. Arakaki H. 25. Ataupillco J. 27. Barrios K. 20. Correa Flores C. A. 3. Ganoza M. 1. Izaguirre P. (G) 96. Peral P. 33. Salcedo R.
Coaches
Desio C.	Castellanos S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', Valoyes J. 🟨,
45+4', Falconi J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
53', Yovera A. 🟨,
60', Aguirre G. ↓, Neira C. ↑,
65', 1 - 0, Benites Vargas L. E. ⚽, Souza Espana C. (A),
66', Yovera A. ↓, Arakaki H. ↑,
71', Arias Fierro S. D. 🟨,
73', 1 - 1, Caballero F. ⚽,
77', Benites Vargas L. E. ↓, Noronha O. ↑,
80', Garces C. 🟨,
82', 2 - 1, Hohberg A. ⚽, Garces C. (A),
85', Ramirez D. ↓, Barrios K. ↑,
86', Hohberg A. ↓, Ramua A. ↑,
86', Galeano L. ↓, Amasifuen N. ↑,
87', Bolado J. 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 8 and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cienciano won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Cienciano is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Cienciano: Romagnoli J. (Broken calfbone)

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Cienciano won 5 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 19:22. (average 1.1:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Cienciano won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cienciano
Peruvian Liga 1
07.11.25	Sporting Cristal - Cienciano	2:1 ✺
02.11.25	Cienciano - Juan Pablo II College	2:1 ✺
25.10.25	Alianza Atlético - Cienciano	0:1 ✺
18.10.25	Cienciano - Cusco	1:2 ✺
13.10.25	Cajamarca - Cienciano	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 LWWLW
- Ayacucho FC
Peruvian Liga 1
08.11.25	Ayacucho - Comerciantes Unidos	Abandoned ✺
01.11.25	Los Chankas - Ayacucho	1:0 ✺
25.10.25	Ayacucho - Deportivo Garcilaso	4:2 ✺
20.10.25	Universitario de Deportes - Ayacucho	2:1 ✺
12.10.25	Ayacucho - ADT Tarma	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 ?LWLT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
13.07.25	Ayacucho - Cienciano	1:0
30.07.22	Ayacucho - Cienciano	0:1
04.03.22	Cienciano - Ayacucho	3:1
22.10.21	Ayacucho - Cienciano	1:3
23.04.21	Ayacucho - Cienciano	1:1
29.02.20	Cienciano - Ayacucho	1:4
15.11.15	Cienciano - Ayacucho	1:1

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