Match Info

Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 16

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Ciudad de Cumana (Ayacucho)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Fanatiz
Peru	Liga 1 Play
Usa	Fanatiz


	Ayacucho		Deportivo Garcilaso

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.25	3.5	Watch
	2.08	3.25	3.45	Watch
	2.22	3.25	3.25
	2.50	3.28	2.64	Watch
	2.16	3.22	3.34	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.21 ↓ (2.5)	3.25 ↓ (3.28)	3.24 ↑ (2.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ayacucho
42.3%

Draw
28.8%

Deportivo Garcilaso
28.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.9%

28.1%

35%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.1%

27.2%

33.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ayacucho has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ayacucho's performance.

Deportivo Garcilaso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Deportivo Garcilaso might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ayacucho than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportivo Garcilaso than the current prediction. (+5%)

Ayacucho - Deportivo Garcilaso Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ayacucho (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Valencia J. (G) 3. Ganoza M. 22. Bilbao J. 88. Arakaki H. 29. Falconi J. 12. Caro D. 18. Orue D. 8. Ramirez D. 66. de la Cruz A. 77. Lucumi J. 99. Caballero F.	1. Zubczuk P. (G) 18. Nunez O. 13. Lojas J. 16. Beltran C. 14. Gallardo J. 22. Portales J. 11. Erustes P. 23. Moreno X. 8. Gomez N. 10. Sandoval K. 38. Sinisterra J.
Substitutes
26. Aquino H. 27. Barrios K. 20. Correa Flores C. A. 1. Izaguirre P. (G) 24. Perez Azambuya E. M. 33. Salcedo R. 5. Tamariz A. 6. Tuesta J. 16. Vilchez J.	31. Barbieri J. (G) 7. Bazan J. 26. Celi Y. 6. Garrafa Tapia I. A. 19. Naya E. 25. Paucar E. 2. Salazar A. 28. Valer J. F. 33. Villacorta S.
Coaches
Castellanos S.	Bustos C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Arakaki H. ⚽, Caballero F. (A),
21', Lojas J. 🟨,
25', 2 - 0, Caballero F. ⚽, Arakaki H. (A),
31', Nunez O. 🟨,
31', Lucumi J. 🟨,
32', Nunez O. 🟥,
32', Lucumi J. 🟥,
40', Lojas J. 🟨,
42', Barbieri J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Moreno X. ↓, Celi Y. ↑,
46', Gallardo J. ↓, Paucar E. ↑,
52', Bilbao J. 🟨,
59', Caro D. ↓, Tamariz A. ↑,
60', Caballero F. ↓, Perez Azambuya E. M. ↑,
62', Sinisterra J. ↓, Naya E. ↑,
65', de la Cruz A. ↓, Correa Flores C. A. ↑,
66', Gomez N. 🟨,
66', Gomez N. 🟨,
67', Tamariz A. 🟨,
68', 3 - 0, Perez Azambuya E. M. ⚽,
74', Bilbao J. 🟨,
77:00, 3 - 1, Naya E. (Pen),
78', Arakaki H. ↓, Barrios K. ↑,
78', Ramirez D. ↓, Vilchez J. ↑,
79', Sandoval K. ↓, Garrafa Tapia I. A. ↑,
83', 3 - 2, Naya E. ⚽,
90+3', Ganoza M. 🟨,
90+5', Celi Y. 🟨,
90+9', 4 - 2, Orue D. ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 17 and 7).

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

There will not play in Ayacucho: Leon Canchanya B. H. (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Deportivo Garcilaso: Arancibia F. (Broken collarbone) Canales E. (Yellow Cards)

There are questionable in Ayacucho: Ataupillco J. (Injury) Caballero F. (Injury) Yovera A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Deportivo Garcilaso: Canales E. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Ayacucho won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ayacucho FC
Peruvian Liga 1
20.10.25	Universitario de Deportes - Ayacucho	2:1 ✺
12.10.25	Ayacucho - ADT Tarma	2:2 ✺
29.09.25	Sporting Cristal - Ayacucho	3:0 ✺
25.09.25	Ayacucho - Juan Pablo II College	2:1 ✺
22.09.25	Alianza Atlético - Ayacucho	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LTLWL
- Deportivo Garcilaso
Peruvian Liga 1
19.10.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Sporting Cristal	0:1 ✺
13.10.25	Juan Pablo II College - Deportivo Garcilaso	0:1 ✺
05.10.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Alianza Atlético	2:4 ✺
30.09.25	Cusco - Deportivo Garcilaso	4:0 ✺
25.09.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Cajamarca	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWLLT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
21.06.25	Deportivo Garcilaso - Ayacucho	2:1

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