Match Info

Liga 1 - Clausura - Round 14

Date: 28 October 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega (Cusco) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Espinoza M. (Per)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Peru	19:00	Liga 1 Max, Liga 1 Play, Nativa
Usa	20:00	Fanatiz
Vietnam	07:00	TV 360


	Cienciano		Atlético Grau

	1	X	2
	1.25	5.5	10	Watch
	1.23	5.50	8.75
	1.23	5.6	11	Watch
	1.26	5.87	9.73
	1.26	5.8	9.7	Watch
	1.21	5.75	9.5
	1.24	5.8	9.9	Watch
	1.23	6.2	10
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.4)	5.75 ↑ (4.75)	9.82 ↑ (7)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cienciano
74.5%

Draw
16.1%

Atlético Grau
9.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

66.9%

19.7%

13.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

70.6%

17.5%

11.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cienciano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cienciano's performance.

Atlético Grau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cienciano than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Grau than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Cienciano - Atlético Grau Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Falcon G. (G) 22. Cabello C. 4. Amondarain M. 3. Becerra K. 16. Martinich M. 5. Arias Fierro S. D. 29. Robles A. 7. Souza Espana C. 17. Sandoval R. 11. Bandiera N. 21. Garces C. (C)	1. Alvarez P. (C) 4. Rodriguez D. 27. Tapia R. 3. Tapia I. 25. Alfaro Martinez G. E. 5. Guarderas R. 21. Correa E. 10. de la Cruz P. 15. Lavandeira Hernandez P. 77. Da Luz M. 24. Ruidiaz Y.
Substitutes
26. Aguilar R. 8. Aguirre G. 88. Barreto G. 39. Caparo H. 14. Cavero S. 31. Espinoza Gomes I. (G) 18. La Torre D. 13. Nunez C. 19. Succar M.	2. Acevedo L. 16. Ataupillco J. 7. Barreto D. 96. Benites Vargas L. E. 33. Calderon A. (G) 11. Delgadillo N. 99. Fernandez A. 13. Oncoy F. 20. Vasquez A.
Coaches
Melgarejo H.	Ameli G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', de la Cruz P. 🟨,
38', Robles A. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Sandoval R. ↓, Succar M. ↑,
46', Robles A. ↓, Barreto G. ↑,
53', 1 - 0, Garces C. ⚽, Succar M. (A),
57', Ruidiaz Y. ↓, Acevedo L. ↑,
57', Lavandeira Hernandez P. ↓, Benites Vargas L. E. ↑,
58', de la Cruz P. ↓, Vasquez A. ↑,
67', Alfaro Martinez G. E. ↓, Delgadillo N. ↑,
67', Da Luz M. ↓, Fernandez A. ↑,
73', 2 - 0, Garces C. ⚽, Souza Espana C. (A),
77', 3 - 0, Garces C. ⚽, Souza Espana C. (A),
79', Cabello C. ↓, Nunez C. ↑,
79', Bandiera N. ↓, Aguirre G. ↑,
83', Souza Espana C. ↓, La Torre D. ↑,
90+2', Guarderas R. 🟨,

Preview

A balanced mid-table encounter with both sides eager to climb into upper positions (ranked 12th and 11th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cienciano won 3.

Each of the two teams is seeking greater consistency after recent ups and downs.

Grau could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Cienciano holds a commanding advantage according to the oddsmakers.

Confirmed absences for Grau: Vasquez C. (Red Card).

Doubtful / questionable for Grau: Alfaro Martinez G. E. (Injury).

In the last 15 head-to-head meetings, Cienciano has recorded 7 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses, with a goal aggregate of 19:17 (averaging 1.3:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Cienciano against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with 12:3 goals (averaging 1.5:0.4 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Grau	14	5	3	6	16:20	-4	18
12	Cienciano	14	5	2	7	19:21	-2	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cienciano
Peruvian Liga 1
25.10.26	Comerciantes Unidos - Cienciano	3:1 ✺
18.10.26	Cienciano - Cajamarca	1:0 ✺
08.10.26	Moquegua - Cienciano	0:2 ✺
30.09.26	Cienciano - Los Chankas	0:0 ✺
23.09.26	ADT Tarma - Cienciano	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWWTL
- Atlético Grau
Peruvian Liga 1
23.10.26	Atlético Grau - ADT Tarma	1:1 ✺
17.10.26	Alianza Lima - Atlético Grau	3:1 ✺
08.10.26	Atlético Grau - Los Chankas	0:0 ✺
19.09.26	Sporting Cristal - Atlético Grau	3:1 ✺
13.09.26	Atlético Grau - Alianza Atlético	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 TLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 1
09.05.26	Atlético Grau - Cienciano	1:2
24.08.25	Cienciano - Atlético Grau	1:0
05.04.25	Atlético Grau - Cienciano	1:1
17.08.24	Cienciano - Atlético Grau	1:0
09.03.24	Atlético Grau - Cienciano	1:1
30.09.23	Cienciano - Atlético Grau	2:0
21.05.23	Atlético Grau - Cienciano	4:0

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