Match Info

USA: US OPEN CUP - 1/32-FINALS

Date: 26 April 2023, Wednesday

Location: TQL Stadium (Cincinnati)


	Cincinnati		Louisville City

	1	X	2
	1.55	3.7	4.8
	1.55	3.6	5.25
	1.55	3.7	5.25
	1.52	3.5	5.25
	1.57	3.95	5.4	Watch
	1.57	3.8	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.55 ↑ (1.45)	3.71 ↓ (4)	5.16 ↓ (6.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cincinnati
58.2%

Draw
24.3%

Louisville City
17.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.6%

22.7%

14.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.1%

21.5%

13.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cincinnati has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Louisville City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cincinnati than the current prediction. (+7.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cincinnati, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Louisville City than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Cincinnati - Louisville City Predictions

Users Predictions: Cincinnati will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cincinnati won 2.

Cincinnati is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Louisville City is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match Cincinnati is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Cincinnati to win the game is with odds 1.52.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Cincinnati won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 12-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Cincinnati won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 8-8.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Cincinnati
MLS
22.04.23	Cincinnati - Portland Timbers	2:1 ✺
15.04.23	St. Louis City - Cincinnati	5:1 ✺
08.04.23	Cincinnati - Philadelphia Union	1:0 ✺
01.04.23	Cincinnati - Inter Miami	1:0 ✺
25.03.23	Nashville SC - Cincinnati	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 WLWWW
- Louisville City FC
USL Championship
22.04.23	Charleston Battery - Louisville City	0:0 ✺
15.04.23	Louisville City - San Antonio	1:0 ✺
08.04.23	Louisville City - Detroit City	1:0 ✺
01.04.23	Sacramento Republic - Louisville City	5:0 ✺
25.03.23	Louisville City - El Paso Locomotive	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

US Open Cup
12.06.19	Cincinnati - Louisville City	2:1 ET
USL Championship
08.09.18	Louisville City - Cincinnati	0:1
26.05.18	Cincinnati - Louisville City	0:2
07.04.18	Cincinnati - Louisville City	0:1
12.08.17	Louisville City - Cincinnati	5:0
15.07.17	Louisville City - Cincinnati	2:3
US Open Cup
31.05.17	Cincinnati - Louisville City	1:0

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