Match Info

USL Championship

Date: 5 April 2025, Saturday

Location: Heart Health Park (Sacramento, CA)

Referee: Corrigan M. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Sacramento Republic		Louisville City

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.75	3.1	2.25
	2.95	3.25	2.3
	2.99	3.26	2.35	Watch
	2.97	3.2	2.31	Watch
	2.95	3.25	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.92 ↑ (2.41)	3.21 ↓ (3.41)	2.3 ↓ (2.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sacramento Republic
31.5%

Draw
28.6%

Louisville City
39.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.3%

27.1%

34.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sacramento Republic has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sacramento Republic's form might have worsened.

Louisville City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Louisville City's recent form is better than expected.

Sacramento Republic - Louisville City Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Vitiello D. (C) 2. Gurr J. 5. Timmer J. 6. Kleemann F. 22. Benitez M. 20. Willey B. 96. Luis Felipe 10. Parano C. 11. Cicerone R. 17. Wanner D. 24. Jamieson L.	1. Las D. (G) 4. Totsch S. 5. Ordonez A. 32. Adams K. (C) 2. McFadden A. 27. Davila E. 17. Davila T. 15. Perez E. 25. Wilson J. 9. Goodrum P. 7. Serrano R.
Substitutes
7. Amann T. 21. Djedje R. 23. Edwards A. 8. Lopez R. 99. Mazzola J. (G) 43. Portillo J. J. 3. Spaulding R. 55. Ukaegbu C.	83. Dayes B. 13. Dia A. 12. Faundez D. (G) 23. Gleadle S. 24. Jones J. 11. McCabe N. 8. Moguel C. 16. Perez A.
Coaches
Collins N.	Cruz D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Timmer J. ↓, Ukaegbu C. ↑,
46', Wanner D. ↓, Spaulding R. ↑,
66', Jamieson L. ↓, Herrera J. ↑,
69', 1 - 0, Parano C. ⚽,
70', McFadden A. ↓, Dia A. ↑,
70', Goodrum P. ↓, Gleadle S. ↑,
74', Davila E. ↓, McCabe N. ↑,
75', Wilson J. ↓, Perez A. ↑,
81', Parano C. ↓, Lopez R. ↑,
84', Gurr J. ↓, Edwards A. ↑,
86', Adams K. 🟨,
90', Ordonez A. ↓, Jones J. ↑,
90+8', 1 - 1, Dia A. ⚽,

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: )).

Sacramento Republic could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Sacramento Republic won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 9:7 (average 3:2.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Sacramento Republic won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5:0

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sacramento Republic FC
USL Championship
28.03.25	Tulsa - Sacramento Republic	1:0 ✺
22.03.25	Sacramento Republic - Colorado Springs Switchbacks	2:2 ✺
08.03.25	Sacramento Republic - New Mexico United	2:1 ✺
01.11.24	Las Vegas Lights - Sacramento Republic	1:0 penalties ✺
26.10.24	Sacramento Republic - Colorado Springs Switchbacks	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 LTWLL
- Louisville City FC
USL Championship
29.03.25	Louisville City - Detroit City	2:0 ✺
22.03.25	Louisville City - Loudoun United	2:0 ✺
16.03.25	Birmingham Legion - Louisville City	1:1 ✺
08.03.25	Charleston Battery - Louisville City	1:2 ✺
09.11.24	Louisville City - Rhode Island	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

USL Championship
10.08.24	Louisville City - Sacramento Republic	4:3
01.04.23	Sacramento Republic - Louisville City	5:0
03.09.22	Louisville City - Sacramento Republic	3:1

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