Match Info

ITALY: Serie B - Round 18

Date: 21 December 2024, Saturday

Location: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato (Cittadella)

Referee: Colombo A. (Ita)

Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia


	Cittadella		Reggiana

	1	X	2
	3.3	3	2.38	Watch
	3.1	2.9	2.45
				Watch
	3.56	3	2.45
	3.33	2.92	2.45	Watch
	2.7	3	2.7
	3.42	2.92	2.4	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.24 ↑ (2.49)	2.96 ↓ (3.14)	2.47 ↓ (2.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cittadella
29.4%

Draw
32.2%

Reggiana
38.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

30.1%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.4%

30.6%

32.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cittadella has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cittadella's form might have worsened.

Reggiana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Reggiana's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cittadella than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cittadella, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Reggiana than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Reggiana, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	66.7%	8.3%

Cittadella - Reggiana Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Cittadella will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Reggiana will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). It will Tie (votes: 8 - 66.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 40% – 93.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
36. Kastrati E. (G) 2. Salvi A. 30. Negro S. 19. D'Alessio F. 24. Carissoni L. 17. Tronchin S. 5. Casolari F. 23. Branca S. (C) 32. Masciangelo E. 16. Vita A. 7. Pandolfi L.	22. Bardi F. (G) 31. Sampirisi M. 13. Meroni A. 44. Lucchesi L. 17. Libutti L. 25. Ignacchiti L. 77. Kabashi E. 90. Portanova M. 7. Marras M. 23. Pettinari S. 30. Vergara A.
Substitutes
10. Cassano C. 11. Desogus J. 9. Magrassi A. 26. Pavan N. 35. Piccinini S. 21. Rabbi S. 91. Ravasio M. 28. Rizza A. 22. Scquizzato E. (G) 20. Voltan D.	15. Fiamozzi R. 24. Fontanarosa A. 11. Gondo C. 27. Maggio M. 1. Motta E. (G) 87. Nahounou Y. 18. Okwonkwo O. 16. Reinhart T. 5. Sersanti A. 99. Sposito A. (G) 6. Stulac L. 10. Vido L.
Coaches
Dal Canto A.	Viali W.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Negro S. ↓, Piccinini S. ↑,
31', Pettinari S. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
59', Branca S. ↓, Ravasio M. ↑,
62', 1 - 0, Pandolfi L. ⚽, Salvi A. (A),
65', Bardi F. 🟨,
68', Libutti L. ↓, Gondo C. ↑,
74', Ravasio M. 🟨,
77', Ignacchiti L. ↓, Sersanti A. ↑,
77', Marras M. ↓, Maggio M. ↑,
77', Pettinari S. ↓, Vido L. ↑,
78', 2 - 0, Tronchin S. ⚽, Ravasio M. (A),
84', 2 - 1, Gondo C. ⚽,
86', Sampirisi M. 🟨,
86', Casolari F. ↓, Pavan N. ↑,
87', Pandolfi L. ↓, Rabbi S. ↑,
89', Vita A. 🟨,
89', Vergara A. ↓, Okwonkwo O. ↑,
90+3', Maggio M. 🟨,
90+6', 3 - 1, Rabbi S. ⚽, Ravasio M. (A),

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation and 14).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cittadella won 3.

Cittadella is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Reggiana is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match the chances to win of both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Cittadella: Amatucci F. (Yellow Cards) Maniero L. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Cittadella: Sanogo A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Reggiana: Nuhu S. (Injury)

Last 6 head-to-head matches Cittadella won 4 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9:6 (average 1.5:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Cittadella won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3:4 (average 1:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Cittadella - the odds 2.49 are the expected chance of winning is 38.05%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AS Cittadella
Italian Serie B
15.12.24	Cittadella - Cremonese	0:0 ✺
08.12.24	Spezia - Cittadella	5:0 ✺
30.11.24	Cittadella - Juve Stabia	2:2 ✺
24.11.24	Bari - Cittadella	3:2 ✺
10.11.24	Cittadella - Cesena	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TLTLL
- AC Reggiana 1919
Italian Serie B
14.12.24	Reggiana - Modena	0:1 ✺
08.12.24	Cremonese - Reggiana	0:2 ✺
29.11.24	Reggiana - Sassuolo	0:2 ✺
23.11.24	Cesena - Reggiana	1:1 ✺
10.11.24	Reggiana - Catanzaro	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.2 LWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Italian Serie B
06.04.24	Reggiana - Cittadella	0:2
20.08.23	Cittadella - Reggiana	1:0
20.02.21	Cittadella - Reggiana	0:3
09.01.21	Reggiana - Cittadella	0:2
Italian Serie C Group A
10.04.16	Reggiana - Cittadella	2:2
28.11.15	Cittadella - Reggiana	2:1

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